3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,344 sqft ·
Built 1979
· Manufactured
· Active
· 9 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,367/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$656
Tax + insurance
−$155
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$497
Net cashflow
$1,060/mo
Annual
$12,716/yr
Cap rate
16.47%
Cash-on-cash
36.33%
DSCR
2.62
1% rule
1.89%
Cash to close
$35,000
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
In year one you build about $4k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.4% local appreciation)).
Location reads 49/100 on livability (#1,178 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
Southern Kern Unified (town): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #387 of 517 in CA (top 75%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Market conditions: 458 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
5 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $97k; 29% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
At projected returns (2.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 16.5% vs local median 4.3% in Rosamond — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-WVDR833YEE7XYD
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29