431 Ponderosa Circle Cir

Lake Almanor Peninsula, CA 96137

$449,000C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,932 sqft · Built 1989 · SingleFamily · Active · 67 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,250/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,355
• Tax + insurance: −$423
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$892
• Net cashflow: $580/mo
• Annual: $6,958/yr
• Cap rate: 7.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.53%
• DSCR: 1.25
• 1% rule: 0.95%
• Cash to close: $125,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $449k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $580 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $425k (5.3% below list).
• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($422k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $422k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (1.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#781 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Plumas Unified (rural): math 21% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #306 of 517 in CA (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: C. Roy Carmichael Elementary (346 students, 72% FRL); Quincy Junior/Senior High (math 22% / reading 47%, grade F, #618 of 1,170 statewide, top 56%, 340 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools average 60% FRL vs 41% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 240 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 39 units permitted in Plumas County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Plumas County population projected at -42% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $170k; list at $449k implies a 165% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (1.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $126k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 1.2% in Lake Almanor Peninsula — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.