431 Ponderosa Circle Cir · Lake Almanor Peninsula, CA 96137

$449,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,932 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 66 Days on market

Built 1989 0.57 ac lot $232/sqft · 26% below area Est $604k · 26% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• Appreciation +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nestled in the Pines neighborhood of Lake Almanor, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 1,932 sq ft of inviting living space. Freshened up and ready for new ownership, the home highlights its authentic cabin charm and warmth. A great opportunity to enjoy the mountain lifestyle today or bring your vision to update and personalize. Fully Fenced back yard and out door sun room ready for a spa with 220 wiring. Full of cozy character and classic mountain charm, it’s ideal as a full-time residence or a relaxing getaway.

Key facts

• 0.57 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1989

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $449k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $580 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $425k (5.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $422k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 1.2% in Lake Almanor Peninsula — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#781 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Plumas Unified (rural): math 21% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #306 of 517 in CA (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: C. Roy Carmichael Elementary (346 students, 72% FRL); Quincy Junior/Senior High (math 22% / reading 47%, grade F, #618 of 1,170 statewide, top 56%, 340 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools average 60% FRL vs 41% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 240 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 39 units permitted in Plumas County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (1.4% local appreciation)).
• Plumas County population projected at -42% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $126k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($422k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $170k; list at $449k implies a 165% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $422,060 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.53%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $604,129
• List price: $449,000
• Delta: -25.68%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
467 Ponderosa Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,680 (-13%)	6mo	$535,000	$318	61
425 Ponderosa Drive Dr	0.05mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,048 (+6%)	21mo	$388,000	$189	61
419 Peninsula Drive Dr	0.21mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,981 (+2%)	21mo	$400,000	$202	59
625 Deep Forest Rd	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,944 (+1%)	7mo	$540,000	$278	59
293 Terranova Drive Dr	0.53mi	3/2.5	2,200 (+14%)	4mo	$910,000	$414	47
78 Lakeside Drive Dr	0.54mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,177 (+13%)	2mo	$810,000	$372	43
540 Peninsula Drive Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,668 (-14%)	8mo	$685,000	$411	41
215 Peninsula Drive Dr	0.66mi	3/3.0	2,117 (+10%)	14mo	$570,000	$269	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.38% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.43×
• Total profit: $53,535
• Equity at exit: $162,157

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.50×
• Total profit: $188,373
• Equity at exit: $222,531

Cash invested: $125,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96137

• Home prices YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 240
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,250 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,355
• Tax from tax record: −$236 /mo · $2,832/yr
• Insurance: −$187
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$892
• Net cashflow: $580

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,516

Max offer price $449,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $834	-5% $707	+0% $580	+5% $453	+10% $326
Rent	-10% $244	-5% $412	+0% $580	+5% $748	+10% $916
Rate	-1.0pp $806	-0.5pp $694	base $580	+0.5pp $463	+1.0pp $345

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,250
• Closing costs: $13,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
601 W Burnt Cedar Rd Westwood, CA	3.0	3.0	2100	$4,250	$2.02	46d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $449,000 Active 66 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $449,000 Active 64 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $449,000 Active 63 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $449,000 Active 62 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $449,000 Active 61 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $449,000 Active 60 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $449,000 Active 58 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $449,000 Active 57 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $449,000 Active 55 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $449,000 Active 54 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $449,000 Active 53 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $449,000 Active 52 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $449,000 Active 49 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $449,000 Active 48 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $449,000 Active 47 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $449,000 Active 46 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $449,000 Active 45 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $449,000 Active 44 DOM
19. 2026-04-17
    listed $449,000 Active 523-char remark

    Show marketing remark (523 chars)

    Nestled in the Pines neighborhood of Lake Almanor, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 1,932 sq ft of inviting living space. Freshened up and ready for new ownership, the home highlights its authentic cabin charm and warmth. A great opportunity to enjoy the mountain lifestyle today or bring your vision to update and personalize. Fully Fenced back yard and out door sun room ready for a spa with 220 wiring. Full of cozy character and classic mountain charm, it’s ideal as a full-time residence or a relaxing getaway.

20. 2025-07-18
    price $465,500
21. 2025-06-22
    price $479,000
22. 2025-06-06
    listed $485,000 Active
23. 2024-07-04
    listed $475,000 Active
24. 2023-07-13
    price $474,000
25. 2023-05-11
    listed $479,000 Active
26. 2019-06-05
    listed $439,000
27. 2011-07-22
    soldstatus $169,500
28. 2005-09-12
    soldstatus $365,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,832 · $236/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,412 · $284/mo
• Expected delta: +$581/yr (+$48/mo · 20.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 21 unhealthy d/yr today · 25 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $51,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,151
• − Property taxes: −$2,832
• − Insurance: −$2,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,080
• − Management: −$4,080
• − Depreciation: −$13,062
• Taxable loss: −$449
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$108
• After-tax cash flow: $7,066/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Plumas Unified
• NCES district ID: 0631170
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $46,935
• Composite: 27.89/100
• National rank: #6870
• State rank: #306 of 517 in CA

Livability — Lake Almanor Peninsula

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #781
• US rank: #22469

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Almanor Peninsula, CA
• Population (ZIP): 2,717

Population outlook (Plumas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,564 people
• By 2030: 14,014 · -10.0%
• By 2040: 11,197 · -28.1%
• By 2050: 9,069 · -41.7%
• By 2075: 5,573 · -64.2%
• By 2100: 3,392 · -78.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8% Native American 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Plumas

• 2024 margin: R (+16.9) · D 39.9% · R 56.9% · Other 3.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.0pp toward R · 2008: -12.0pp · 2024: -16.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.9 2020: R+16.7 2016: R+21.0 2012: R+17.2 2008: R+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.38%
• Current HPI: 153.1005
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+23.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Listed $449,000 PAR
• 2025-07-18 Price Changed $465,500 PAR
• 2025-06-22 Price Changed $479,000 PAR
• 2025-06-06 Listed $485,000 PAR
• 2024-07-04 Listed $475,000 PAR
• 2023-07-13 Price Changed $474,000 PAR
• 2023-05-11 Listed $479,000 PAR
• 2019-06-05 Listed $439,000 PAR
• 2011-07-22 Sold (Public Records) $169,500 Public Records
• 2005-09-12 Sold (Public Records) $365,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,832 · -0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.