3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,684 sqft ·
Built 1946
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 38 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,678/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,016
Tax + insurance
−$237
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$352
Net cashflow
$73/mo
Annual
$875/yr
Cap rate
6.74%
Cash-on-cash
1.61%
DSCR
1.07
1% rule
0.87%
Cash to close
$54,225
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $194k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $73 ($875/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $168k (13.4% below list).
It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $168k (13.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 75/100 on livability (#147 in TX, #4,181 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D+, commute F.
Tyler ISD (urban): math 39% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #449 of 826 in TX (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Peete El (math 22% / reading 17%, grade F, #3,583 of 4,322 statewide, top 86%, 414 students, 98% FRL); Hubbard Middle (math 47% / reading 45%, grade D+, #462 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 869 students, 62% FRL); Tyler Legacy H S (math 34% / reading 49%, grade F, #767 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 2,594 students, 58% FRL).
Watch-outs: built in 1946 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 327 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 595 units permitted in Smith County in 2024 (45 in 5+ unit buildings).
Smith County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 60% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.6% in Tyler — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1946 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-WVM9210JACF77G
· Data 1 day agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29