121 Arkansas St

San Francisco, CA 94107

$1,800,000B-

28 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,350 sqft · Built 1900 · MultiFamily · Active · 109 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $18,064/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$9,439
• Tax + insurance: −$1,103
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,793
• Net cashflow: $3,729/mo
• Annual: $44,743/yr
• Cap rate: 8.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.88%
• DSCR: 1.40
• 1% rule: 1.00%
• Cash to close: $504,000

Investor read

• This is a 3×2bd/1ba + 1×1bd/1ba units multifamily listed at $1.80M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4k ($45k/yr) — positive. Per door: $932/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($18k rent vs $1.80M).
• It's been on market 109 days — a 9% lower offer ($1.64M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.64M (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $99k of equity ($12k loan paydown + $87k appreciation (4.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in CA, #3,143 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• San Francisco Unified (urban): math 50% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #322 of 1,400 in CA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lilienthal (Claire) Elementary (669 students, 19% FRL); Giannini (A.P.) Middle (1,192 students, 34% FRL); Lowell High (2,632 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools average 30% FRL vs 49% district-wide (19 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+18.9%/yr); 140 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 750 units permitted in San Francisco County in 2024 (688 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Francisco County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 31y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $160k; list at $1.80M implies a 1025% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (4.8% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $504k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$159k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 2.1% in San Francisco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 109 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?