121 Arkansas St · San Francisco, CA 94107

$1,800,000

28 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,350 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 109 Days on market

Built 1900 2,500 sqft lot $766/sqft · at area comps Est $1821k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.6/30.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.0/15.0
• Appreciation +7.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 4 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

Exceptional investment opportunity in desirable Potrero Hill! This well-maintained 4-unit property features three spacious 2-bedroom, 1-bath units and one 1-bedroom, 1-bath unit, offering strong in-place income with additional value-add potential. Ideal for investors seeking stable cash flow and long-term appreciation. Prime location within walking distance to parks, restaurants, and neighborhood amenities. Convenient access to Mission Bay, major freeways, and public transportation makes this property highly attractive to tenants. A rare opportunity to own a performing asset in one of the city's most sought-after rental markets.

Key facts

• Value add potential
• 4 unit property
• Prime location

Tags

• 4 UNIT PROPERTY
• VALUE ADD POTENTIAL
• PRIME LOCATION
• WALKING DISTANCE TO PARKS
• ACCESS TO MAJOR FREEWAYS
• SOUGHT AFTER RENTAL MARKETS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3×2bd/1ba + 1×1bd/1ba units multifamily listed at $1.80M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4k ($45k/yr) — positive. Per door: $932/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($18k rent vs $1.80M).
• Recommended offer: $1.64M (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 2.1% in San Francisco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in CA, #3,143 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• San Francisco Unified (urban): math 50% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #322 of 1,400 in CA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+18.9%/yr); 140 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 750 units permitted in San Francisco County in 2024 (688 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $18,064/mo this rent would consume 119% of the median local household income ($183k/yr) (locally 1851% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $99k of equity ($12k loan paydown + $87k appreciation (4.8% local appreciation)).
• San Francisco County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (4.8% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $504k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$159k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 109 days — a 9% lower offer ($1.64M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 31y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $160k; list at $1.80M implies a 1025% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $1,638,000 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 109 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.88%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,821,456
• List price: $1,800,000
• Delta: -1.18%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

4.81% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.44×
• Total profit: $727,382
• Equity at exit: $999,250

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.43×
• Total profit: $2,230,681
• Equity at exit: $1,707,625

Cash invested: $504,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City San Francisco: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+57

SF Rent Ordinance + Eviction Protections; relocation $10k+; one of strictest in US.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94107

• Home prices YoY: 2.6%
• Rents YoY: 18.9%
• Active inventory: 140
• Price-to-rent: 32.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $18,064 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$9,439
• Tax from tax record: −$353 /mo · $4,231/yr
• Insurance: −$750
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,793
• Net cashflow: $3,729

Break-even live

Break-even rent $13,344

Max offer price $1,800,000

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $4,748	-5% $4,238	+0% $3,729	+5% $3,219	+10% $2,710
Rent	-10% $2,302	-5% $3,015	+0% $3,729	+5% $4,442	+10% $5,156
Rate	-1.0pp $4,635	-0.5pp $4,186	base $3,729	+0.5pp $3,262	+1.0pp $2,788

4-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 3× units	2	1	$13,890
1× unit	1	1	$4,173
Total (4 units)			$18,064

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $450,000
• Closing costs: $54,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $1,800,000 Active 109 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,800,000 Active 106 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,800,000 Active 105 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,800,000 Active 104 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,800,000 Active 103 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,800,000 Active 101 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,800,000 Active 100 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,800,000 Active 97 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,800,000 Active 96 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $1,800,000 Active 95 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $1,800,000 Active 92 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,800,000 Active 91 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,800,000 Active 90 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,800,000 Active 89 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,800,000 Active 88 DOM
16. 2026-03-04
    listed $1,800,000 Active 636-char remark

    Show marketing remark (636 chars)

    Exceptional investment opportunity in desirable Potrero Hill! This well-maintained 4-unit property features three spacious 2-bedroom, 1-bath units and one 1-bedroom, 1-bath unit, offering strong in-place income with additional value-add potential. Ideal for investors seeking stable cash flow and long-term appreciation. Prime location within walking distance to parks, restaurants, and neighborhood amenities. Convenient access to Mission Bay, major freeways, and public transportation makes this property highly attractive to tenants. A rare opportunity to own a performing asset in one of the city's most sought-after rental markets.

17. 1996-06-12
    soldstatus $160,000
18. 1996-05-16
    historical
19. 1995-12-06
    listed $199,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,231 · $353/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $13,680 · $1,140/mo
• Expected delta: +$9,449/yr (+$787/mo · 223.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥78°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 15 unhealthy d/yr today · 15 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $216,768
• − Mortgage interest: −$100,828
• − Property taxes: −$4,231
• − Insurance: −$9,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$17,341
• − Management: −$17,341
• − Depreciation: −$52,364
• Taxable income: $15,663
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,759
• After-tax cash flow: $40,984/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Francisco Unified
• NCES district ID: 0634410
• Math proficiency: 50% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $81,249
• Composite: 50.14/100
• National rank: #4088
• State rank: #322 of 1400 in CA

Livability — San Francisco

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3143

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Francisco, CA
• County: San Francisco County · 827,552 people
• City population: 827,552
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 31,823
• Household income: $182,897
• Rent vs Own: 64.3% rent · 35.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1851.0

Population outlook (San Francisco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,030,936 people
• By 2030: 1,110,409 · +7.7%
• By 2040: 1,270,010 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 1,435,001 · +39.2%
• By 2075: 1,779,074 · +72.6%
• By 2100: 1,966,767 · +90.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Asian 32% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 12% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 36% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Chinese 12% Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · San Francisco

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+64.8) · D 80.3% · R 15.5% · Other 4.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.7pp toward R · 2008: 70.5pp · 2024: 64.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+64.8 2020: D+72.5 2016: D+76.1 2012: D+70.2 2008: D+70.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.81%
• Current HPI: 192.3569
• Rent YoY: ▲ 18.89%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+804.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-04 Listed $1,800,000 San Francisco MLS
• 1996-06-12 Sold (MLS) $160,000 San Francisco MLS
• 1996-05-16 Delisted — San Francisco MLS
• 1995-12-06 Listed $199,000 San Francisco MLS

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,231 · +4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.