9616 Long Point Rd #63

Houston, TX 77055

$119,000D

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 972 sqft · Built 1965 · Condo · Active · 37 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,295/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax + insurance: −$165
• HOA: −$409
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$272
• Net cashflow: $-175/mo
• Annual: $-2,102/yr
• Cap rate: 4.53%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.31%
• DSCR: 0.72
• 1% rule: 1.09%
• Cash to close: $33,320

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $119k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-175 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $88k (26.0% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $119k).
• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($115k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $88k (26.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $823 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Spring Branch ISD (urban): math 47% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #215 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Woodview El (math 21% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,221 of 4,322 statewide, top 75%, 525 students, 95% FRL); Spring Woods Middle (math 17% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,378 of 1,662 statewide, top 83%, 814 students, 92% FRL); Spring Woods H S (math 53% / reading 36%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 2,113 students, 82% FRL) — zoned schools average 90% FRL vs 54% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 30% at this address vs 46% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Spring Branch ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 32% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 447 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 3.1% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?