43 Heritage Rd

Salt Point, NY 12514

$599,000A-

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,040 sqft · Built 1979 · SingleFamily · Pending · 49 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $22,000/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,141
• Tax + insurance: −$889
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,620
• Net cashflow: $13,350/mo
• Annual: $160,198/yr
• Cap rate: 33.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 95.51%
• DSCR: 5.25
• 1% rule: 3.67%
• Cash to close: $167,720

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $599k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $13k ($160k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($22k rent vs $599k).
• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($581k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $581k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $64k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $60k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 34/100 on livability (#1,193 in NY) — a limited-amenity area; tenant pool skews transient or value-seeking. Strengths: crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Millbrook Central School District (rural): math 65% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #198 of 755 in NY (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Elm Drive Elementary School (192 students, 22% FRL); Millbrook Middle School (math 42% / reading 67%, grade B-, #214 of 729 statewide, top 31%, 202 students, 37% FRL); Millbrook High School (math 87%, 271 students, 34% FRL).
• Market conditions: 38 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $52k; list at $599k implies a 1041% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $168k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$103k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 33.0% vs local median 2.3% in Salt Point — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.