2814 Willow Ct

Auburn Hills, MI 48360

$134,000F

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 882 sqft · Built 1972 · Condo · Active · 9 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,312/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$703
• Tax + insurance: −$344
• HOA: −$400
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$276
• Net cashflow: $-410/mo
• Annual: $-4,922/yr
• Cap rate: 2.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.12%
• DSCR: 0.42
• 1% rule: 0.98%
• Cash to close: $37,520

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $134k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-410 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $69k (48.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $131k (2.1% below list).
• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $69k (48.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $926 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#151 in MI, #3,766 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, health & safety F.
• Lake Orion Community Schools (suburban): math 49% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #45 of 540 in MI (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Webber School (math 70% / reading 76%, grade A, #50 of 1,397 statewide, top 4%, 518 students, 20% FRL); Waldon Middle School (math 45% / reading 61%, grade C+, #90 of 493 statewide, top 19%, 547 students, 26% FRL); Lake Orion Community High School (math 54% / reading 75%, grade B-, #46 of 713 statewide, top 7%, 2,174 students, 24% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; HOA is 30% of rent.
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,614 units permitted in Oakland County in 2024 (721 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Oakland County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 8 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $110k; 22% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Cap rate 2.6% vs local median 3.7% in Auburn Hills — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?