2814 Willow Ct · Auburn Hills, MI 48360

$134,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 882 sqft · Condo public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1972 $400/mo HOA · 30% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Cash flow +3.4/30.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy summer living in this beautiful condo with all-sports lake access to Lake Voorheis! This inviting two-story, 2-bedroom, 1-bath condo features a private first-floor exterior entrance, an open-concept floor plan, and a spacious primary bedroom with a walk-in closet. The updated bathroom adds modern appeal, while the attached one-car garage provides convenience and additional storage. All kitchen appliances are included, along with a first-floor washer and dryer. Ideally located with easy access to I-75 and within walking distance of grocery stores and restaurants. Enjoy the peaceful, park-like setting complete with sidewalks throughout the community. Pets are welcome, making this a wonderful place to call home!

Key facts

• Attached garage
• Walk-in closet
• Private entrance

Tags

• LAKE ACCESS
• PRIVATE ENTRANCE
• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• UPDATED BATHROOM
• ATTACHED GARAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with $400 monthly fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Condominium; Residential property; Two-level; Entry at ground level
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Slab foundation; Built with vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Paved road access; Beach access and lake privileges (Voorheis)

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); No cooling
• Interior features: Ground-level entry; 4 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $134k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-410 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $69k (48.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $131k (2.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $69k (48.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 2.6% vs local median 3.7% in Auburn Hills — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#151 in MI, #3,766 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, health & safety F.
• Lake Orion Community Schools (suburban): math 49% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #45 of 540 in MI (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Webber School (math 70% / reading 76%, grade A, #50 of 1,397 statewide, top 4%, 518 students, 20% FRL); Waldon Middle School (math 45% / reading 61%, grade C+, #90 of 493 statewide, top 19%, 547 students, 26% FRL); Lake Orion Community High School (math 54% / reading 75%, grade B-, #46 of 713 statewide, top 7%, 2,174 students, 24% FRL).
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,614 units permitted in Oakland County in 2024 (721 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $926 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Oakland County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 8 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $110k; 22% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; HOA is 30% of rent.

Recommended offer $69,150 (48.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.12%
• DSCR: 0.42
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -40.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.27×
• Total profit: $-47,499
• Equity at exit: $19,980

10-year hold

• IRR: -61.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.96×
• Total profit: $-73,622
• Equity at exit: $11,586

Cash invested: $37,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48360

• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,312 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$703
• Tax from tax record: −$288 /mo · $3,458/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$400
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$276
• Net cashflow: $-410

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,831

Max offer price $69,150

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-334	-5% $-372	+0% $-410	+5% $-448	+10% $-486
Rent	-10% $-514	-5% $-462	+0% $-410	+5% $-358	+10% $-307
Rate	-1.0pp $-343	-0.5pp $-376	base $-410	+0.5pp $-445	+1.0pp $-480

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,500
• Closing costs: $4,020
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3355 Thornwood Trl Orion Twp, MI	1.0–2.0	1.0	613	$1,312	$2.14	0d	19	0.57mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $400 · $4,800/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $134,000 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $134,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $134,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $134,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $134,000 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $134,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,458 · $288/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,458 · $288/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,744
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,506
• − Property taxes: −$3,458
• − Insurance: −$670
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,260
• − Management: −$1,260
• − HOA: −$4,800
• − Depreciation: −$3,898
• Taxable loss: −$7,107
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,706
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,217/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake Orion Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2620730
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $82,396
• Composite: 51.21/100
• National rank: #1755
• State rank: #45 of 540 in MI

Livability — Auburn Hills

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #151
• US rank: #3766

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 24,514
• Population (ZIP): 12,250

Population outlook (Oakland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,335,747 people
• By 2030: 1,375,100 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 1,435,385 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 1,469,250 · +10.0%
• By 2075: 1,531,946 · +14.7%
• By 2100: 1,450,485 · +8.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 8% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 12% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 3% Other Indo-European 3% Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Oakland

• 2024 margin: D (+10.6) · D 54.4% · R 43.8% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: 14.5pp · 2024: 10.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.6 2020: D+14.1 2016: D+8.1 2012: D+8.1 2008: D+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -226.18%
• Current HPI: 180.3844
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+306.1% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $134,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-06-12 Listed $134,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-08-06 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-08-06 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2024-07-01 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-07-01 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2024-06-21 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2024-06-21 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-06-12 Listed $149,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-06-12 Listed $149,900 REALCOMP
• 2022-01-06 Sold (Public Records) $110,000 Public Records
• 2021-11-12 Sold (MLS) $110,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-11-12 Sold (MLS) $110,000 REALCOMP
• 2021-11-11 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-11-11 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2021-10-29 Contingent — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-10-29 Contingent — REALCOMP
• 2021-10-24 Listed $110,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-10-24 Listed $110,000 REALCOMP
• 2003-10-07 Sold (Public Records) $108,500 Public Records
• 1999-08-16 Sold (Public Records) $88,901 Public Records
• 1996-08-12 Sold (Public Records) $64,000 Public Records
• 1994-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $52,000 Public Records
• 1989-07-28 Sold (Public Records) $33,000 Public Records
• 1980-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $33,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+18.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,458 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.