674 Amesbury Rd

Conroe, TX 77316

$199,000D

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,659 sqft · Built 2022 · SingleFamily · Active · 42 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,916/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax + insurance: −$689
• HOA: −$54
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$402
• Net cashflow: $-273/mo
• Annual: $-3,274/yr
• Cap rate: 4.65%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.88%
• DSCR: 0.74
• 1% rule: 0.96%
• Cash to close: $55,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $199k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-273 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $151k (24.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (3.7% below list).
• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($193k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $151k (24.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F, health & safety F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Gordon-Reed El (586 students, 47% FRL); Peet J H (math 45% / reading 50%, grade C-, #408 of 1,662 statewide, top 25%, 1,289 students, 58% FRL); Conroe H S (math 32% / reading 51%, grade F, #767 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 4,915 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 56% FRL vs 34% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 44% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.7% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 2717 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 70d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 70% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.4% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.