674 Amesbury Rd · Conroe, TX 77316

$199,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,659 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 42 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition 5,257 sqft lot 2-car garage $120/sqft · 20% below area Est $248k · 20% under $54/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 27% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautiful 2 story home in the desirable Chapel Run! Featuring 3 beds & 2.5 baths, this like-new 2022-built home offers a functional & thoughtfully designed floor plan with generous living space downstairs and all bedrooms & laundry room conveniently located upstairs. The inviting kitchen & dining combo showcases timeless white cabinetry, elegant granite countertops, & stainless steel appliances—perfect for everyday living & entertaining. You’ll love the convenience of the unique under-stair storage closet, providing clever additional space.

Key facts

• Bright open layout
• Private backyard
• Modern kitchen

Tags

• MODERN KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• BRIGHT OPEN LAYOUT
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $199k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-273 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $151k (24.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (3.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $151k (24.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.4% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F, health & safety F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Gordon-Reed El (586 students, 47% FRL); Peet J H (math 45% / reading 50%, grade C-, #408 of 1,662 statewide, top 25%, 1,289 students, 58% FRL); Conroe H S (math 32% / reading 51%, grade F, #767 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 4,915 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 56% FRL vs 34% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 44% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 2717 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 70d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 70% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($193k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,804 (24.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.65%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.88%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $248,112
• List price: $199,000
• Delta: -9.32%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15123 Willowwater Dr	0.22mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,607 (-3%)	1mo	$251,990	$157	76
15119 Willowwater Dr	0.22mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,582 (-5%)	2mo	$247,990	$157	73
15037 Ronan Dr	0.18mi	3/2.5	1,826 (+10%)	3mo	$288,290	$158	72
15011 Tremaine Ct	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,418 (-14%)	0mo	$215,990	$152	66
738 Amesbury Rd	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,412 (-15%)	2mo	$276,040	$195	65
15003 Tremaine Ct	0.16mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,881 (+13%)	0mo	$264,990	$141	63
15115 Willowwater Dr	0.22mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,881 (+13%)	3mo	$260,990	$139	60
14809 Archer Ct	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,418 (-14%)	3mo	$249,990	$176	60
15203 Abella Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,418 (-14%)	3mo	$243,990	$172	60
281 Mesa Vw	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,421 (-14%)	0mo	$214,995	$151	51
273 Mesa Vw	0.52mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,823 (+10%)	2mo	$239,500	$131	51
256 Mesa Vw	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,901 (+15%)	3mo	$275,000	$145	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-54,227
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: -55.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.57×
• Total profit: $-87,482
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 26 active · 21 under contract
• Months of supply: 3.5 mo (29%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $249,446 ($157/sqft)
• Median days on market: 104 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: -4.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77316

• Home prices YoY: -10.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 2717
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,916 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$606 /mo · $7,272/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$54
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$402
• Net cashflow: $-273

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,261

Max offer price $150,804

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-160	-5% $-216	+0% $-273	+5% $-329	+10% $-385
Rent	-10% $-424	-5% $-349	+0% $-273	+5% $-197	+10% $-121
Rate	-1.0pp $-173	-0.5pp $-222	base $-273	+0.5pp $-324	+1.0pp $-377

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
583 Firemoon St Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1412	$1,650	$1.17	70d	1	0.02mi
613 Craven St Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1716	$1,610	$0.94	93d	1	0.27mi
15231 Abella Dr Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1922	$1,760	$0.92	70d	1	0.28mi
15242 Abella Dr Montgomery, TX	4.0	2.5	1881	$1,780	$0.95	53d	1	0.30mi
15310 Abella Dr Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1412	$1,720	$1.22	51d	1	0.33mi
632 Levine Ct Montgomery, TX	4.0	2.5	2239	$2,075	$0.93	4d	1	0.34mi
425 McCaleb Rd Montgomery, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	872	$1,530	$1.75	0d	15	0.49mi
1003 Crystal River Rd Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1330	$2,100	$1.58	4d	1	0.97mi
702 Crystal River Rd Montgomery, TX	4.0	2.5	1820	$4,000	$2.20	93d	1	1.00mi
28752 Aloha Ln Montgomery, TX	4.0	2.0	1761	$1,986	$1.13	73d	1	1.46mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Full ownership
• HOA & community: Chapel Run HOA with annual fee of $650 covering common areasCommunity curbs and guttersPlayground amenity

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garageDriveway
• Security: Prewired for securitySmoke detectors
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyFaces eastBuilt in 2022Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick and cement siding exteriorComposition roofBuilt in 2022
• Exterior features: FencePrivate yardBack yard fencingSubdivision settingPond on lotConcrete road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherElectric ovenFree-standing rangeMicrowaveDisposalOvenRefrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (Second floor, 14 x 15)Bedroom (Second floor, 12 x 10)Bedroom (Second floor, 12 x 10)
• Flooring: CarpetVinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroomPrimary bathroom (Second floor, 11 x 4)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (Gas)Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Granite countersKitchen islandKitchen/family room comboPantryTub/showerCeiling fansKitchen/dining comboProgrammable thermostatLow emissivity windowsEnergy Star qualified appliancesVentilation (improved indoor air quality)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupGas dryer hookupWasherDryerUtility room (First floor, 6 x 5)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $199,000 Active 42 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $199,000 Active 40 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $199,000 Active 39 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $199,000 Active 38 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $199,000 Active 37 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $199,000 Active 34 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $199,000 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $199,000 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $199,000 Active 29 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $199,000 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $199,000 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $199,000 Active 25 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $199,000 Active 24 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $199,000 Active 23 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $199,000 Active 21 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $199,000 Active 20 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $199,000 Active 19 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $199,000 Active 18 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $199,000 Active 17 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $199,000 Active 16 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $199,000 Active 15 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $199,000 Active 14 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $199,000 Active 13 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $199,000 Active 12 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $199,000 Active 10 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $199,000 Active 9 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $199,000 Active 8 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $199,000 Active 7 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $199,000 Active 6 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $199,000 Active 5 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $199,000 Active 4 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $199,000 Active 3 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $199,000 Active 2 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    pricedays on marketlisting id $199,000 Active 1 DOM
35. 2026-06-09
    days on market $225,000 Active 57 DOM
36. 2026-06-08
    days on market $225,000 Active 56 DOM
37. 2026-06-07
    days on market $225,000 Active 55 DOM
38. 2026-06-04
    days on market $225,000 Active 52 DOM
39. 2026-06-03
    days on market $225,000 Active 51 DOM
40. 2026-06-02
    days on market $225,000 Active 50 DOM
41. 2026-06-01
    days on market $225,000 Active 49 DOM
42. 2026-05-31
    days on market $225,000 Active 48 DOM
43. 2026-04-13
    listed $235,000 Active 1043-char remark
44. 2026-04-13
    historical
45. 2026-03-16
    listed $245,000 Active
46. 2023-04-17
    soldstatus Sold
47. 2023-03-14
    status Pending
48. 2023-03-08
    price $256,990
49. 2023-03-04
    price $271,990
50. 2023-02-13
    price $251,990

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,272 · $606/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,272 · $606/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,993
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$7,272
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,839
• − Management: −$1,839
• − HOA: −$648
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$6,537
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,569
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,705/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This 2022-built home in Chapel Run offers a good condition with modern finishes and a functional floor plan. It is move-in ready with minor maintenance items to address.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal ↑
• Rental Clean gutters — Keeps property in good condition ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 44/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Gordon-Reed El Middle Peet J H C- TX #408/1,662 Nat'l #4,042/14,009 High Conroe H S F TX #767/1,632 Nat'l #7,907/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 74/100

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Conroe, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 713,896 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,694
• Household income: $124,055
• Rent vs Own: 10.9% rent · 89.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

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Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8%

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Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.44%
• Current HPI: 262.6973
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.40%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Full ownership
• HOA & community: Chapel Run HOA with annual fee of $650 covering common areasCommunity curbs and guttersPlayground amenity

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garageDriveway
• Security: Prewired for securitySmoke detectors
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyFaces eastBuilt in 2022Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick and cement siding exteriorComposition roofBuilt in 2022
• Exterior features: FencePrivate yardBack yard fencingSubdivision settingPond on lotConcrete road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherElectric ovenFree-standing rangeMicrowaveDisposalOvenRefrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (Second floor, 14 x 15)Bedroom (Second floor, 12 x 10)Bedroom (Second floor, 12 x 10)
• Flooring: CarpetVinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroomPrimary bathroom (Second floor, 11 x 4)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (Gas)Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Granite countersKitchen islandKitchen/family room comboPantryTub/showerCeiling fansKitchen/dining comboProgrammable thermostatLow emissivity windowsEnergy Star qualified appliancesVentilation (improved indoor air quality)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupGas dryer hookupWasherDryerUtility room (First floor, 6 x 5)

Price history

-26.6% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-27 Listed $199,000 HARMLS
• 2026-06-08 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-29 Price Changed $225,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-13 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-13 Listed $235,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-16 Listed $245,000 HARMLS
• 2023-04-17 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2023-03-14 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-03-08 Price Changed $256,990 HARMLS
• 2023-03-04 Price Changed $271,990 HARMLS
• 2023-02-13 Price Changed $251,990 HARMLS
• 2023-01-25 Price Changed $246,990 HARMLS
• 2023-01-17 Price Changed $256,990 HARMLS
• 2022-12-29 Price Changed $271,990 HARMLS
• 2022-12-20 Price Changed $261,990 HARMLS
• 2022-12-13 Price Changed $256,990 HARMLS
• 2022-11-18 Price Changed $270,990 HARMLS
• 2022-11-15 Price Changed $278,990 HARMLS
• 2022-11-08 Listed $270,990 HARMLS

Property tax history

+265.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,272 · +5.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.