816 Lickskillet Rd

Warrenton, NC 27589

$149,000C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,064 sqft · Built 1997 · Manufactured · Active · 136 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,483/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax + insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$311
• Net cashflow: $270/mo
• Annual: $3,237/yr
• Cap rate: 8.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.76%
• DSCR: 1.35
• 1% rule: 1.00%
• Cash to close: $41,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $149k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $270 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $148k (0.5% below list).
• It's been on market 136 days — a 12% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $131k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $14k appreciation (9.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#250 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A; Watch: housing D+, employment D, amenities F.
• Warren County Schools (rural): math 11% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #174 of 178 in NC (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mariam Boyd Elementary (math 2% / reading 8%, grade F, #1,405 of 1,410 statewide, top 100%, 341 students, 99% FRL); Warren County High (math 15% / reading 27%, grade F, #488 of 535 statewide, top 91%, 384 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 79% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 54 active listings in the ZIP; 255 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Warren County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $15k; list at $149k implies a 893% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (9.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 46% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 136 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.