816 Lickskillet Rd · Warrenton, NC 27589

$149,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,064 sqft · Manufactured public records · 136 Days on market

Built 1997 2.45 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.2/30.0
• Appreciation +9.8/10.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks

Back on the market at no fault of the home. Buyer changed their mind. This 3 bedroom, 2 bath single wide home is situated on over 2.4 acres in a peaceful rural setting with no city taxes. Offering space, privacy, and affordability, this property provides room to spread out while still being conveniently located near Warrenton and nearby amenities. The home features a functional layout with an eat in kitchen, designated dining area, and dedicated laundry area for everyday convenience. An added front sitting area provides additional living space and can be used as a cozy retreat, home office, or flexible bonus space. Outside, the expansive lot offers opportunities for gardening, outdoor enjoy

Key facts

• Eat-in kitchen
• Functional layout
• 2.45 acre lot

Tags

• COMFORTABLE SITTING AREA
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• GENEROUS LIVING SPACE
• PRIVACY OF COUNTRY LIVING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property sits on approximately 2.45 acres; No waterfront; Accessible via state road with public maintenance and asphalt surface
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking; Gravel/unpaved parking; 2 open parking spaces (2 total)
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Electricity available; Cable available; Phone available; Septic connected; Water connected
• Home design: Manufactured house; Single-wide body type; One level; Updated/remodeled
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Block and stone foundation; Built as manufactured housing
• Exterior features: Front porch; Patio; Fire pit; Private yard; Storage; Garage(s), outbuilding and shed(s) on the property; Grassed and partially wooded vegetation

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Free-standing refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Heat pump; Central air
• Interior features: Bookcases; Breakfast bar; Kitchen island; Kitchen/dining room combination; Electric fireplace in the living room
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $270 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $148k (0.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $131k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#250 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A; Watch: housing D+, employment D, amenities F.
• Warren County Schools (rural): math 11% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #174 of 178 in NC (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mariam Boyd Elementary (math 2% / reading 8%, grade F, #1,405 of 1,410 statewide, top 100%, 341 students, 99% FRL); Warren County High (math 15% / reading 27%, grade F, #488 of 535 statewide, top 91%, 384 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 79% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 54 active listings in the ZIP; 255 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $14k appreciation (9.6% local appreciation)).
• Warren County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (9.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 136 days — a 12% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $15k; list at $149k implies a 893% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 46% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 136 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.76%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.64% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.27×
• Total profit: $94,642
• Equity at exit: $130,369

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.5%
• Equity multiple: 7.33×
• Total profit: $264,175
• Equity at exit: $277,134

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27589

• Home prices YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 54
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,483 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax from tax record: −$58 /mo · $697/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$311
• Net cashflow: $270

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,141

Max offer price $149,000

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,000 Active 136 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,000 Active 135 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,000 Active 134 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,000 Active 133 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,000 Active 131 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,000 Active 127 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,000 Active 126 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $149,000 Active 125 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $149,000 Active 122 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,000 Active 121 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,000 Active 120 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,000 Active 119 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,000 Active 118 DOM
14. 2026-05-03
    historical Active Under Contract
15. 2026-02-22
    status Active
16. 2026-01-26
    historical
17. 2026-01-02
    listed $149,000 Active
18. 2025-11-21
    price $149,000
19. 2025-11-20
    status Active
20. 2025-11-06
    historical Active Under Contract
21. 2025-11-06
    historical
22. 2025-08-04
    listed $160,000 Active
23. 1999-02-18
    soldstatus $15,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $697 · $58/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,222 · $102/mo
• Expected delta: +$525/yr (+$44/mo · 75.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 46% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,791
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$697
• − Insurance: −$745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,423
• − Management: −$1,423
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable income: $822
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$197
• After-tax cash flow: $3,040/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warren County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3704740
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $33,433
• Composite: 14.62/100
• National rank: #9409
• State rank: #174 of 178 in NC

Livability — Warrenton

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #250
• US rank: #11101

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing D+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,763

Population outlook (Warren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 18,664 people
• By 2030: 17,641 · -5.5%
• By 2040: 15,442 · -17.3%
• By 2050: 13,634 · -27.0%
• By 2075: 10,523 · -43.6%
• By 2100: 7,777 · -58.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 51% White 27% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 8% Native American 7% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Warren

• 2024 margin: D (+19.0) · D 58.8% · R 39.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.5pp toward R · 2008: 39.5pp · 2024: 19.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.0 2020: D+25.7 2016: D+33.2 2012: D+36.0 2008: D+39.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.64%
• Current HPI: 303.9918
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+893.3% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-03 Contingent — TMLS
• 2026-02-22 Relisted — TMLS
• 2026-01-26 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2026-01-02 Listed $149,000 TMLS
• 2025-11-21 Price Changed $149,000 TMLS
• 2025-11-20 Relisted — TMLS
• 2025-11-06 Contingent — TMLS
• 2025-11-06 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2025-08-04 Listed $160,000 TMLS
• 1999-02-18 Sold (Public Records) $15,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $697 · +43.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.