543 Cr 3515

Shadybrook, TX 75757

$179,000D+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 868 sqft · Built 2013 · Manufactured · Active · 88 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,426/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax + insurance: −$178
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$299
• Net cashflow: $9/mo
• Annual: $113/yr
• Cap rate: 6.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.23%
• DSCR: 1.01
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $50,120

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $179k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $9 ($113/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $143k (20.4% below list).
• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($168k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $143k (20.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,042 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Bullard ISD (rural): math 65% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #48 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 581 active listings in the ZIP; 39 units permitted in Cherokee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 69% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.0% in Shadybrook — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: roof — Significant damage to the roof
• Major: exterior walls — Significant damage to the exterior walls
• Major: interior walls — Significant damage to the interior walls
• Major: HVAC/mechanicals — No visible systems, likely in poor condition