543 Cr 3515 · Shadybrook, TX 75757

$179,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 868 sqft · Manufactured public records · 88 Days on market

Built 2013 Poor condition $206/sqft · 16% below area Est $245k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

ATTN: INVESTORS! 2 rental properties! Property consists of 1.37 acres/2 parcels of land with 2 mobile homes. Each have 2 bedrooms, 2 baths and an adjoining parcel of land where additional mobile homes could be added. Both properties have tenants, combined income is $2000 per month. They are all on a month to month basis. See attached map for details.

Key facts

• Built 2013
• Listed 87 days

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $179,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$244,565) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $179k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $9 ($113/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $143k (20.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $143k (20.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.0% in Shadybrook — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,042 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Bullard ISD (rural): math 65% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #48 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 581 active listings in the ZIP; 39 units permitted in Cherokee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($168k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 69% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $142,572 (20.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.23%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $244,565
• List price: $179,000
• Delta: -26.81%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
558 County Rd 3503	0.54mi	3/2.0 (+1)	896 (+3%)	12mo	$250,000	$279	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-28,458
• Equity at exit: $26,689

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-24,221
• Equity at exit: $15,477

Cash invested: $50,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75757

• Home prices YoY: -23.6%
• Active inventory: 581
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,426 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax from tax record: −$104 /mo · $1,243/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$299
• Net cashflow: $9

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,414

Max offer price $179,000

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,750
• Closing costs: $5,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $179,000 Active 88 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,000 Active 87 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,000 Active 86 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,000 Active 85 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,000 Active 84 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $179,000 Active 82 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,000 Active 81 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $179,000 Active 79 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,000 Active 78 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $179,000 Active 77 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $179,000 Active 76 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $179,000 Active 72 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,000 Active 71 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,000 Active 70 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,000 Active 69 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $179,000 Active 68 DOM
17. 2026-03-23
    listed $179,000 Active 352-char remark

    Show marketing remark (352 chars)

    ATTN: INVESTORS! 2 rental properties! Property consists of 1.37 acres/2 parcels of land with 2 mobile homes. Each have 2 bedrooms, 2 baths and an adjoining parcel of land where additional mobile homes could be added. Both properties have tenants, combined income is $2000 per month. They are all on a month to month basis. See attached map for details.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,243 · $104/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,276 · $273/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,032/yr (+$169/mo · 163.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 69% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,109
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,027
• − Property taxes: −$1,243
• − Insurance: −$895
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,369
• − Management: −$1,369
• − Depreciation: −$5,207
• Taxable loss: −$3,001
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$720
• After-tax cash flow: $833/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive repairs and improvements to its exterior, interior, and HVAC systems. Significant damage is visible, and the property is currently in poor condition.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — Significant damage to the roof
• Major exterior walls — Significant damage to the exterior walls
• Major interior walls — Significant damage to the interior walls
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — No visible systems, likely in poor condition

Value-add opportunities

• Both repair and replace roof — A new roof would improve both the appearance and functionality of the property
• Both repair and replace exterior walls — A new exterior wall would improve the appearance and functionality of the property
• Both repair and replace interior walls — A new interior wall would improve the appearance and functionality of the property
• Both repair and replace HVAC/mechanicals — A new HVAC system would improve the comfort and functionality of the property

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · Significant damage to the roof	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior walls · Significant damage to the exterior walls	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls · Significant damage to the interior walls	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/mechanicals · No visible systems, likely in poor condition	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$60,000–200,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both repair and replace roof — A new roof would improve both the appearance and functionality of the property ↑
• Both repair and replace exterior walls — A new exterior wall would improve the appearance and functionality of the property ↑
• Both repair and replace interior walls — A new interior wall would improve the appearance and functionality of the property ↑
• Both repair and replace HVAC/mechanicals — A new HVAC system would improve the comfort and functionality of the property ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bullard ISD
• NCES district ID: 4812060
• Math proficiency: 65% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $55,026
• Composite: 53.66/100
• National rank: #1433
• State rank: #48 of 826 in TX

Livability — Shadybrook

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1042
• US rank: #18541

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B- Housing C Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 13,977

Population outlook (Cherokee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 51,949 people
• By 2030: 51,984 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 51,780 · -0.3%
• By 2050: 51,085 · -1.7%
• By 2075: 47,418 · -8.7%
• By 2100: 39,464 · -24.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 5% Italian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Cherokee

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+62.7) · D 18.3% · R 80.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.5pp toward R · 2008: -43.2pp · 2024: -62.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+62.7 2020: R+55.8 2016: R+56.5 2012: R+51.0 2008: R+43.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.57%
• Current HPI: 189.5215
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-23 Listed $179,000 GTAR

Property tax history

-5.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,243 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.