19 Harley Ave

McKee City, NJ 08234

$247,000C-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 832 sqft · Built 1988 · SingleFamily · Under Contract · 38 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,425/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,295
• Tax + insurance: −$397
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$509
• Net cashflow: $224/mo
• Annual: $2,684/yr
• Cap rate: 7.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.88%
• DSCR: 1.17
• 1% rule: 0.98%
• Cash to close: $69,160

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $247k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $224 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $242k (1.8% below list).
• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($240k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $240k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Egg Harbor Township School District (suburban): math 18% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #311 of 472 in NJ (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Clayton J. Davenport Elementary School (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #878 of 1,303 statewide, top 70%, 757 students, 64% FRL); Fernwood Avenue Middle School (math 13% / reading 50%, grade F, #289 of 431 statewide, top 69%, 883 students, 50% FRL); Egg Harbor Township High School (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #169 of 399 statewide, top 44%, 2,335 students, 47% FRL) — zoned schools average 54% FRL vs 34% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 363 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 672 units permitted in Atlantic County in 2024 (258 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Atlantic County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $85k; list at $247k implies a 191% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 4.9% in McKee City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.