19 Harley Ave · McKee City, NJ 08234

$247,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 832 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1988 $297/sqft · 12% below area Est $282k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.2/30.0
• ARV discount +13.1/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great location. Charming cedar sided 2 bedroom cottage with natural gas , city water and sewer. lot 100x135 Living room has vaulted ceilings and fireplace. open floor plan Needs TLC to make it sparkle.

Key facts

• City water
• Cedar sided
• Vaulted ceilings

Tags

• CEDAR SIDED
• NATURAL GAS
• CITY WATER
• CITY SEWER
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• FIREPLACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing is for sale; Not a bank-owned/foreclosure property

Exterior

• Parking: Two-car exterior parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Estate classification
• Construction: House painted/finished in wood
• Exterior features: Patio; Porch; Shed; Wood siding

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Eat-in kitchen layout
• Bedrooms: Both bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating (natural gas)
• Interior features: Cathedral ceiling; Fireplace in living room; Eat-in kitchen; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer on main level; Utility room on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $247k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $224 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $242k (1.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $240k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 4.9% in McKee City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Egg Harbor Township School District (suburban): math 18% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #311 of 472 in NJ (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Clayton J. Davenport Elementary School (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #878 of 1,303 statewide, top 70%, 757 students, 64% FRL); Fernwood Avenue Middle School (math 13% / reading 50%, grade F, #289 of 431 statewide, top 69%, 883 students, 50% FRL); Egg Harbor Township High School (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #169 of 399 statewide, top 44%, 2,335 students, 47% FRL) — zoned schools average 54% FRL vs 34% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 363 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 672 units permitted in Atlantic County in 2024 (258 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Atlantic County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($240k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $85k; list at $247k implies a 191% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $239,590 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.88%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $282,138
• List price: $247,000
• Delta: -12.45%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4031 Ivins Ave	0.63mi	1/1.0 (-1)	750 (-10%)	2mo	$170,000	$227	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-25,754
• Equity at exit: $36,829

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-3,974
• Equity at exit: $21,356

Cash invested: $69,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08234

• Home prices YoY: -6.7%
• Active inventory: 363
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,425 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,295
• Tax from tax record: −$294 /mo · $3,527/yr
• Insurance: −$103
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$509
• Net cashflow: $224

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,142

Max offer price $247,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $363	-5% $294	+0% $224	+5% $154	+10% $84
Rent	-10% $32	-5% $128	+0% $224	+5% $319	+10% $415
Rate	-1.0pp $348	-0.5pp $286	base $224	+0.5pp $160	+1.0pp $95

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,750
• Closing costs: $7,410
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6020 Delilah Rd Egg Harbor Township, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1009	$2,425	$2.40	15d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $247,000 Under Contract 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $247,000 Under Contract 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $247,000 Under Contract 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $247,000 Under Contract 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $247,000 Under Contract 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $247,000 Under Contract 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $247,000 Under Contract 30 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $247,000 Under Contract 29 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $247,000 Under Contract 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $247,000 Under Contract 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $247,000 Under Contract 25 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    statusdays on market $247,000 Under Contract 24 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $247,000 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $247,000 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $247,000 Active 17 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $247,000 Active 16 DOM
17. 2026-05-14
    listed $247,000 Active 205-char remark
18. 1999-02-01
    soldstatus $85,000
19. 1998-03-17
    soldstatus $80,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,527 · $294/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,839 · $403/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,312/yr (+$109/mo · 37.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,100
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,836
• − Property taxes: −$3,527
• − Insurance: −$1,235
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,328
• − Management: −$2,328
• − Depreciation: −$7,185
• Taxable loss: −$1,339
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$321
• After-tax cash flow: $3,005/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Egg Harbor Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3404560
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $71,612
• Composite: 29.81/100
• National rank: #6421
• State rank: #311 of 472 in NJ

Livability — McKee City

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 46,856

Population outlook (Atlantic County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 268,948 people
• By 2030: 264,497 · -1.7%
• By 2040: 252,261 · -6.2%
• By 2050: 237,846 · -11.6%
• By 2075: 210,650 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 180,234 · -33.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 16% Asian 13% Black 9% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 6% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 4% Tagalog/Filipino 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Atlantic

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 50.7% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.1pp toward R · 2008: 15.1pp · 2024: -3.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.0 2020: D+6.7 2016: D+6.2 2012: D+17.2 2008: D+15.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -22.76%
• Current HPI: 319.2948
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+206.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Contingent — SJSRMLS
• 2026-05-14 Listed $247,000 SJSRMLS
• 1999-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 1998-03-17 Sold (Public Records) $80,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,527 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.