3 bd · None ba ·
1,496 sqft ·
Built 2016
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 5 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,882/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,185
Tax + insurance
−$495
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$395
Net cashflow
$-192/mo
Annual
$-2,308/yr
Cap rate
5.27%
Cash-on-cash
-3.65%
DSCR
0.84
1% rule
0.83%
Cash to close
$63,266
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/?-bath single-family listed at $226k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-192 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $192k (15.0% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $188k (16.7% below list).
Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer: $188k (16.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 63/100 on livability (#830 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
Socorro ISD (urban): math 23% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #624 of 826 in TX (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: H D Hilley El (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,052 of 4,322 statewide, top 74%, 514 students, 88% FRL); Salvador Sanchez Middle (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,583 of 1,662 statewide, top 96%, 615 students, 86% FRL); Socorro H S (math 13% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,333 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 2,484 students, 87% FRL) — zoned schools average 87% FRL vs 66% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.3%/yr); 218 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,196 units permitted in El Paso County in 2024 (143 in 5+ unit buildings).
El Paso County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
4 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-WY8VSXB12Q9FXF
· Data 3 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29