440 S Bois D Arc St

Blossom, TX 75416

$164,500C-

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,780 sqft · Built 1981 · SingleFamily · Active · 37 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,253/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$863
• Tax + insurance: −$231
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$263
• Net cashflow: $-104/mo
• Annual: $-1,248/yr
• Cap rate: 5.53%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.71%
• DSCR: 0.88
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $46,060

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $164k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-104 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $146k (11.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $125k (23.8% below list).
• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $125k (23.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (6.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,116 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Prairiland ISD (rural): math 52% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #167 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Blossom El (math 62% / reading 52%, grade C+, #505 of 4,322 statewide, top 13%, 418 students, 55% FRL).
• Market conditions: 56 active listings in the ZIP; 119 units permitted in Lamar County in 2024 (71 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lamar County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 2.8% in Blossom — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.