440 S Bois D Arc St · Blossom, TX 75416

$164,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,780 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 35 Days on market

Built 1981 10,019 sqft lot $92/sqft · 19% below area Est $204k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.8/30.0
• Appreciation +8.1/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath brick home offering approximately 1,780 square feet of comfortable living space in the highly sought-after Prairiland ISD. This property combines solid construction with important updates, including newer windows, HVAC system, and hot water heater—providing peace of mind for years to come. The foundation has also been professionally repaired and comes with a lifetime warranty. Inside, you’ll find a functional layout with ample space for both everyday living and entertaining. The home offers a great balance of comfort and practicality, making it ideal for families or anyone needing extra room. Situated on S Bois D’Arc in Blossom, this pro

Key facts

• Lifetime warranty
• Hot water heater
• Newer windows

Tags

• NEWER WINDOWS
• HVAC SYSTEM
• HOT WATER HEATER
• LIFETIME WARRANTY
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: Meadowlark Add; County: Lamar
• Financial info: Listing terms: Cash or Conventional; Loan type: Treat as clear; No second mortgage reported
• HOA & community: No HOA / association

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking for 2 vehicles; 2-car carport; Additional parking available
• Utilities: City sewer; Not in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; One story; Property attached: Yes
• Construction: Brick construction; Built in 1981
• Exterior features: Less than 0.5 acre lot; Lot in Meadowlark Add subdivision; Directions: Hwy 82 to Blossom, right on Bois D'Arc; house is on the right

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Eat-in kitchen layout
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on level 1 (15 x 18)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Wood-burning fireplace (1)
• Interior features: Cable TV available; Eat-in kitchen; One living area; Two total rooms (listed)
• Laundry & utility: Dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $164k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-137 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $140k (14.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $121k (26.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $121k (26.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 2.6% in Blossom — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,116 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Prairiland ISD (rural): math 52% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #167 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Blossom El (math 62% / reading 52%, grade C+, #505 of 4,322 statewide, top 13%, 418 students, 55% FRL).
• Market conditions: 55 active listings in the ZIP; 119 units permitted in Lamar County in 2024 (71 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (6.2% local appreciation)).
• Lamar County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $121,163 (26.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.30%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.56%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $203,703
• List price: $164,500
• Delta: -19.25%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
610 South St	0.18mi	3/1.0	1,562 (-12%)	3mo	$59,900	$38	69
433 S FM 196	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,563 (-12%)	6mo	$315,000	$202	58
453 Private Road 44005	0.61mi	3/2.5	1,816 (+2%)	16mo	$389,900	$215	49
105 E Division St	0.58mi	3/1.0	1,576 (-12%)	13mo	$43,900	$28	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.17% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.88×
• Total profit: $40,416
• Equity at exit: $105,143

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.72×
• Total profit: $125,257
• Equity at exit: $192,185

Cash invested: $46,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75416

• Home prices YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 55
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,212 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$863
• Tax from tax record: −$163 /mo · $1,951/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$254
• Net cashflow: $-137

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,385

Max offer price $140,373

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,125
• Closing costs: $4,935
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $164,500 Active 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $164,500 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $164,500 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $164,500 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $164,500 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $164,500 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $164,500 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $164,500 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $164,500 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $164,500 Active 24 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $164,500 Active 23 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $164,500 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $164,500 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $164,500 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $164,500 Active 17 DOM
16. 2026-05-12
    listed $164,500 Active 869-char remark
17. 2003-07-30
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,951 · $163/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,010 · $251/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,060/yr (+$88/mo · 54.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 18% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,540
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,215
• − Property taxes: −$1,951
• − Insurance: −$822
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,163
• − Management: −$1,163
• − Depreciation: −$4,785
• Taxable loss: −$4,560
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,094
• After-tax cash flow: $-545/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Prairiland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4835740
• Math proficiency: 52% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $43,652
• Composite: 43.44/100
• National rank: #3010
• State rank: #167 of 826 in TX

Livability — Blossom

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1116
• US rank: #19760

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Blossom, TX
• Population (ZIP): 2,987

Population outlook (Lamar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 48,319 people
• By 2030: 47,160 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 44,621 · -7.7%
• By 2050: 42,024 · -13.0%
• By 2075: 36,577 · -24.3%
• By 2100: 30,580 · -36.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lamar

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.0) · D 19.2% · R 80.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.1pp toward R · 2008: -42.0pp · 2024: -61.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.0 2020: R+57.4 2016: R+59.2 2012: R+50.3 2008: R+42.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.17%
• Current HPI: 202.3527
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $164,500 NTREIS
• 2003-07-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,951 · +7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.