303 Formosa Dr

Guyton, GA 31312

$190,000B+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,128 sqft · Built 2002 · Manufactured · Active · 25 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,524/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax + insurance: −$234
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$530
• Net cashflow: $764/mo
• Annual: $9,164/yr
• Cap rate: 11.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.23%
• DSCR: 1.77
• 1% rule: 1.33%
• Cash to close: $53,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $190k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $764 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $190k).
• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($187k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $187k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#128 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Effingham County (rural): math 49% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #16 of 174 in GA (top 9%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Guyton Elementary School (math 45% / reading 35%, grade F, #427 of 1,228 statewide, top 35%, 739 students, 54% FRL); Effingham County Middle School (math 38% / reading 40%, grade F, #155 of 470 statewide, top 33%, 1,064 students, 52% FRL); Effingham County High School (math 28% / reading 27%, grade F, #158 of 424 statewide, top 37%, 2,108 students, 37% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Effingham County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 400 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 836 units permitted in Effingham County in 2024 (46 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Effingham County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $66k; list at $190k implies a 188% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 97% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 11.1% vs local median 4.6% in Guyton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.