303 Formosa Dr · Guyton, GA 31312

$190,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,128 sqft · Manufactured public records · 25 Days on market

Built 2002 0.75 ac lot Est $309k · 38% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.3/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

LARGE MOBILE HOME-GOOD RESIDENTIAL AREA. BRAND NEW CARPET, NEW FRONT PORCH.

Key facts

• Open-concept home
• Walk-in closet
• Massive lot

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT HOME
• LARGE FLOWING FLOORPLAN
• GENEROUS LIVING SPACES
• MASSIVE LOT
• OWNER'S SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Shared well water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single-story mobile home; No shared/common walls; Raised foundation; Facing/view available
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Vinyl siding; Asphalt roof; Built on raised foundation
• Exterior features: Front porch; Fenced yard; Back yard; Private, wooded setting; Storage structure

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Oven; Range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Double vanity; Kitchen island; Electric fireplace in the family room
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $764 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $190k).
• Recommended offer: $187k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.1% vs local median 4.6% in Guyton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#128 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Effingham County (rural): math 49% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #16 of 174 in GA (top 9%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 400 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 836 units permitted in Effingham County in 2024 (46 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Effingham County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($187k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $66k; list at $190k implies a 188% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 97% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $187,150 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.23%
• DSCR: 1.77
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $308,560
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
235 Southern Charm Way	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,104 (-1%)	4mo	$257,000	$122	69
2553 Courthouse Rd	0.09mi	4/2.0	2,432 (+14%)	10mo	$231,000	$95	63
326 Formosa Dr	0.30mi	4/2.0	1,960 (-8%)	18mo	$285,000	$145	58
4246 Ext Courthouse Rd	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,920 (-10%)	15mo	$288,000	$150	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.34×
• Total profit: $17,838
• Equity at exit: $28,330

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.47×
• Total profit: $78,112
• Equity at exit: $16,428

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31312

• Home prices YoY: -26.6%
• Active inventory: 400
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,524 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$155 /mo · $1,860/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$530
• Net cashflow: $764

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,558

Max offer price $190,000

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $871	-5% $817	+0% $764	+5% $710	+10% $656
Rent	-10% $564	-5% $664	+0% $764	+5% $863	+10% $963
Rate	-1.0pp $859	-0.5pp $812	base $764	+0.5pp $714	+1.0pp $664

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2518 Courthouse Rd Guyton, GA	3.0	2.0	2112	$2,250	$1.07	24d	1	0.22mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $190,000 Active 25 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $190,000 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   price $190,000 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,000 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 19 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $200,000 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $200,000 Active 16 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $200,000 Active 14 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $200,000 Active 13 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $200,000 Active 12 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $200,000 Active 11 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $200,000 Active 8 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $200,000 Active 7 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $200,000 Active 6 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $200,000 Active 5 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $200,000 Active 4 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $200,000 Active 3 DOM
19. 2026-05-27
    listed $200,000 Active
20. 2014-12-31
    soldstatus $66,000 75-char remark

    Show marketing remark (75 chars)

    LARGE MOBILE HOME-GOOD RESIDENTIAL AREA. BRAND NEW CARPET, NEW FRONT PORCH.

21. 2014-12-31
    soldstatus $66,000

    Show marketing remark (75 chars)

    LARGE MOBILE HOME-GOOD RESIDENTIAL AREA. BRAND NEW CARPET, NEW FRONT PORCH.

22. 2014-11-20
    listed $79,500 75-char remark

    Show marketing remark (75 chars)

    LARGE MOBILE HOME-GOOD RESIDENTIAL AREA. BRAND NEW CARPET, NEW FRONT PORCH.

23. 2014-04-29
    historical
24. 2013-11-18
    listed $59,250
25. 2005-07-26
    soldstatus $58,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,860 · $155/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,860 · $155/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 97% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,292
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$1,860
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,423
• − Management: −$2,423
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable income: $6,465
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,552
• After-tax cash flow: $7,612/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Effingham County
• NCES district ID: 1301980
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $60,503
• Composite: 42.56/100
• National rank: #3195
• State rank: #16 of 174 in GA

Livability — Guyton

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #128
• US rank: #9058

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Effingham County · 68,439 people
• City population: 25,991
• Metro: Savannah, GA
• Population (ZIP): 25,991
• Household income: $101,750
• Rent vs Own: 12.2% rent · 87.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 97.0

Population outlook (Effingham County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 67,399 people
• By 2030: 72,297 · +7.3%
• By 2040: 81,602 · +21.1%
• By 2050: 89,494 · +32.8%
• By 2075: 105,976 · +57.2%
• By 2100: 111,943 · +66.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Black 11% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Effingham

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.1) · D 25.2% · R 74.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.6pp toward D · 2008: -50.7pp · 2024: -49.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.1 2020: R+49.5 2016: R+55.6 2012: R+51.2 2008: R+50.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.77%
• Current HPI: 205.9899
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Savannah, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+244.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $200,000 Hive MLS
• 2014-12-31 Sold (Public Records) $66,000 Public Records
• 2014-12-31 Sold (MLS) $66,000 Hive MLS
• 2014-11-20 Listed $79,500 Hive MLS
• 2014-04-29 Listing Removed — Hive MLS
• 2013-11-18 Listed $59,250 Hive MLS
• 2005-07-26 Sold (Public Records) $58,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,860 · +32.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.