9154 Crooked Run Rd

Adrian, GA 31002

$129,900C

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,404 sqft · Built 1986 · Manufactured · Active · 18 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,162/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax + insurance: −$80
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$244
• Net cashflow: $156/mo
• Annual: $1,871/yr
• Cap rate: 7.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.14%
• DSCR: 1.23
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $36,372

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $156 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $116k (10.6% below list).
• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $116k (10.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($898 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#398 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Treutlen County (rural): math 25% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #129 of 174 in GA (top 74%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Treutlen Elementary School (math 37% / reading 28%, grade F, #575 of 1,228 statewide, top 47%, 488 students, 89% FRL); Treutlen Middle/High School (math 17% / reading 21%, grade F, #250 of 424 statewide, top 60%, 532 students, 90% FRL) — zoned schools average 89% FRL vs 71% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP.
• Treutlen County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (2.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.