9154 Crooked Run Rd · Adrian, GA 31002

$129,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,404 sqft · Manufactured public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1986 5.00 ac lot Est $136k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.9/30.0
• ARV discount +9.6/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• Appreciation +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

(Imported from ABBR ListingId 22835) Remodeled Mobile home in the country on 5 acres. This beautiful 3 bedroom 2 bath home features new appliances, new wiring and plumbing, new metal roof and flooring, and a new HVAC unit and water heater. Large master w

Key facts

• Hvac 2-3 years old
• Metal roof
• Paved road

Tags

• 5 WOODED ACRES
• METAL ROOF
• HVAC 2-3 YEARS OLD
• PAVED ROAD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property listed As Is
• HOA & community: No HOA

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Electricity available on property
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level; Resale property
• Construction: Built in 1986; Vinyl siding; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Porch; Greenbelt lot feature

Interior

• Kitchen: Breakfast area; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air
• Interior features: Bookcases; Soaking tub; Split bedroom plan; Crawl space basement; Family room
• Laundry & utility: Mud room/laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $156 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $116k (10.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $116k (10.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#398 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Treutlen County (rural): math 25% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #129 of 174 in GA (top 74%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Treutlen Elementary School (math 37% / reading 28%, grade F, #575 of 1,228 statewide, top 47%, 488 students, 89% FRL); Treutlen Middle/High School (math 17% / reading 21%, grade F, #250 of 424 statewide, top 60%, 532 students, 90% FRL) — zoned schools average 89% FRL vs 71% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($898 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.6% local appreciation)).
• Treutlen County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $116,155 (10.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.14%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $136,188
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9154 Crooked Run Rd	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,404 (0%)	17mo	$136,000	$97	86

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.64% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.63×
• Total profit: $23,059
• Equity at exit: $55,796

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.96×
• Total profit: $71,194
• Equity at exit: $84,010

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31002

• Home prices YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 12
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,162 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$26 /mo · $316/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$244
• Net cashflow: $156

Break-even live

Break-even rent $964

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $129,900 Active 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,900 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,900 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,900 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   statusdays on market $129,900 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $129,900 New 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $129,900 New 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,900 New 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,900 New 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,900 New 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,900 New 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $129,900 New 2 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    remarks 280-char remark
14. 2026-06-02
    listed $129,900 New 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $316 · $26/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,195 · $100/mo
• Expected delta: +$879/yr (+$73/mo · 278.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,939
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$316
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,115
• − Management: −$1,115
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable loss: −$313
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$75
• After-tax cash flow: $1,946/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Treutlen County
• NCES district ID: 1305100
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $37,009
• Composite: 20.41/100
• National rank: #8585
• State rank: #129 of 174 in GA

Livability — Adrian

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #398
• US rank: #19626

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,679

Population outlook (Treutlen County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 6,520 people
• By 2030: 6,380 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 5,998 · -8.0%
• By 2050: 5,627 · -13.7%
• By 2075: 4,922 · -24.5%
• By 2100: 4,345 · -33.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Black 7% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Russian 4% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Treutlen

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.4) · D 27.7% · R 72.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.2pp toward R · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -44.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.4 2020: R+37.3 2016: R+35.1 2012: R+21.1 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.64%
• Current HPI: 284.2205
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+512.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-31 Listed $129,900 GAMLS
• 2025-01-29 Sold (MLS) $136,000 GAMLS
• 2024-11-06 Listed $156,000 GAMLS
• 2022-12-29 Listed $20,000 HABR
• 2022-12-29 Sold (MLS) $20,000 GAMLS
• 2022-12-29 Sold (MLS) $20,000 HABR
• 2022-11-21 Pending — GAMLS
• 2022-11-10 Listed $21,200 GAMLS

Property tax history

+11.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $316 · +5.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.