202 22nd St

Niceville, FL 32578

$250,020C+

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,600 sqft · Built 1967 · SingleFamily · Pending · 52 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,820/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax + insurance: −$296
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$592
• Net cashflow: $620/mo
• Annual: $7,441/yr
• Cap rate: 9.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.63%
• DSCR: 1.47
• 1% rule: 1.13%
• Cash to close: $70,006

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $620 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $250k).
• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($243k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $243k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#147 in FL, #2,207 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Okaloosa (other): math 60% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #12 of 73 in FL (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: James E Plew Elementary School (math 77% / reading 79%, grade A, #149 of 2,144 statewide, top 8%, 829 students, 26% FRL); Niceville Senior High School (math 76% / reading 72%, grade B+, #44 of 667 statewide, top 6%, 2,039 students, 19% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 76% at this address vs 60% district-wide (+16 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Okaloosa average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.4%/yr); 343 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,268 units permitted in Okaloosa County in 2024 (175 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Okaloosa County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 14 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 3.0% in Niceville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($109k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.