202 22nd St · Niceville, FL 32578

$250,020

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,600 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 52 Days on market

Built 1967 0.26 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.0/30.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Short Sale Opportunity - Approved at $250,020. Located in the heart of Niceville, this spacious 5-bedroom, 3-bathroom home offers over 2,600 square feet of living space and endless potential for customization. With a generous layout and solid footprint, it's an excellent opportunity for buyers or investors looking to add value through a full renovation. Ideal for a large primary residence, multi-generational living, or rental income potential, the property is conveniently situated near local schools, parks, shopping, and dining. Bring your vision and transform this well-located home into something truly exceptional.

Key facts

• 0.26 acre lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1967

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Subdivision: PINECREST HILLS

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service; Natural gas service; TV cable available
• Home design: Traditional style; Single-story home; Approximately 2,600 total building area; Built in 1967
• Construction: Year built 1967
• Exterior features: Lot roughly 0.26 acres (approx. 75 x 150); City zoning; No pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen located on the first floor
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms; Master bedroom located on the first floor; All listed bedrooms on the first floor
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Living room; Great room; Florida room
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $620 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $250k).
• Recommended offer: $243k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 3.0% in Niceville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#147 in FL, #2,207 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Okaloosa (other): math 60% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #12 of 73 in FL (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: James E Plew Elementary School (math 77% / reading 79%, grade A, #149 of 2,144 statewide, top 8%, 829 students, 26% FRL); Niceville Senior High School (math 76% / reading 72%, grade B+, #44 of 667 statewide, top 6%, 2,039 students, 19% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 76% at this address vs 60% district-wide (+16 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Okaloosa average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.4%/yr); 343 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,268 units permitted in Okaloosa County in 2024 (175 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($109k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Okaloosa County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($243k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 14 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $242,519 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.63%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $678,600
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
202 22nd St	0.00mi	5/3.0	2,600 (0%)	1mo	$250,100	$96	100
1029 Judith Ave	0.19mi	5/3.5	2,591 (-0%)	3mo	$699,900	$270	86
1001 Bayshore Dr	0.28mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,505 (-4%)	8mo	$682,500	$272	69
1010 Judith Ave	0.25mi	5/3.0	2,340 (-10%)	9mo	$599,900	$256	64
764 Woods Dr	0.57mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,570 (-1%)	5mo	$730,000	$284	62
609 32nd St	0.73mi	5/3.0	2,656 (+2%)	7mo	$739,900	$279	57
1958 Hattie Mae Ln	0.43mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,360 (-9%)	7mo	$525,000	$222	52
807 Raihope Way	0.68mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,551 (-2%)	11mo	$690,000	$270	49
750 Woods Dr	0.63mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,395 (-8%)	5mo	$625,000	$261	48
109 Mcewen Dr	0.59mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,795 (+8%)	12mo	$379,000	$136	45
1403 Bayshore Dr	0.57mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,336 (-10%)	5mo	$600,000	$257	44
1500 Palm Boulevard, S	0.44mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,259 (-13%)	13mo	$555,000	$246	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-9,315
• Equity at exit: $37,279

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $10,681
• Equity at exit: $21,617

Cash invested: $70,006 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32578

• Home prices YoY: -2.5%
• Rents YoY: -0.4%
• Active inventory: 343
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,820 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$192 /mo · $2,307/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$592
• Net cashflow: $620

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,035

Max offer price $250,020

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $762	-5% $691	+0% $620	+5% $549	+10% $479
Rent	-10% $397	-5% $509	+0% $620	+5% $731	+10% $843
Rate	-1.0pp $746	-0.5pp $684	base $620	+0.5pp $555	+1.0pp $489

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,505
• Closing costs: $7,501
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
401 Crystal Ln Niceville, FL	4.0	2.0	2288	$2,700	$1.18	14d	1	0.65mi

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-04-30
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-30
   price $250,020
3. 2026-04-30
   status Active
4. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
5. 2026-04-24
   price $246,000
6. 2026-04-23
   status Active
7. 2026-03-17
   status Pending
8. 2026-01-02
   status Pending
9. 2025-11-28
   status Active
10. 2025-09-17
    status Pending
11. 2025-09-03
    status Active
12. 2025-08-25
    historical
13. 2025-08-24
    listed $275,000
14. 2025-07-21
    price $289,999
15. 2025-07-14
    listed $309,000 Active
16. 2015-05-29
    soldstatus $259,900
17. 2015-05-29
    soldstatus $259,900
18. 2015-05-29
    soldstatus $259,900
19. 2015-04-20
    listed $264,900
20. 2009-07-15
    historical
21. 2009-07-13
    soldstatus $99,000
22. 2009-04-25
    listed $119,000
23. 2008-09-10
    listed $119,000
24. 2008-08-14
    historical
25. 2007-08-14
    listed $149,000
26. 2007-02-03
    historical
27. 2006-09-26
    listed $219,000
28. 2006-09-26
    listed $219,000
29. 2006-07-10
    historical
30. 2005-09-16
    listed $245,000
31. 2005-09-16
    listed $245,000
32. 1980-05-01
    soldstatus $53,800
33. 1979-05-01
    soldstatus $41,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,307 · $192/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,307 · $192/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,837
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,005
• − Property taxes: −$2,307
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,707
• − Management: −$2,707
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable income: $3,588
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$861
• After-tax cash flow: $6,580/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Okaloosa
• NCES district ID: 1201380
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $55,601
• Composite: 51.62/100
• National rank: #1705
• State rank: #12 of 73 in FL

Livability — Niceville

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #147
• US rank: #2207

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Niceville, FL
• County: Okaloosa County · 194,352 people
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• Population (ZIP): 34,738
• Household income: $108,972
• Rent vs Own: 21.1% rent · 78.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 660.0

Population outlook (Okaloosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 235,133 people
• By 2030: 253,483 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 289,537 · +23.1%
• By 2050: 322,954 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 399,624 · +70.0%
• By 2100: 425,311 · +80.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 4% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Okaloosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.4) · D 28.2% · R 70.7% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.5pp toward D · 2008: -44.9pp · 2024: -42.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.4 2020: R+39.1 2016: R+47.8 2012: R+49.4 2008: R+44.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.87%
• Current HPI: 498.41
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.36%
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+502.5% since first listed

33 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Pending — ECAR
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $250,020 ECAR
• 2026-04-30 Relisted — ECAR
• 2026-04-27 Pending — ECAR
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $246,000 ECAR
• 2026-04-23 Relisted — ECAR
• 2026-03-17 Pending — ECAR
• 2026-01-02 Pending — ECAR
• 2025-11-28 Relisted — ECAR
• 2025-09-17 Pending — ECAR
• 2025-09-03 Relisted — ECAR
• 2025-08-25 Delisted — ECAR
• 2025-08-24 Listed $275,000 ECAR
• 2025-07-21 Price Changed $289,999 CPARMLS
• 2025-07-14 Listed $309,000 CPARMLS
• 2015-05-29 Sold (Public Records) $259,900 Public Records
• 2015-05-29 Sold (MLS) $259,900 ECAR
• 2015-05-29 Sold (MLS) $259,900 NAMLS
• 2015-04-20 Listed $264,900 NAMLS
• 2009-07-15 Listing Removed — PARMLS
• 2009-07-13 Sold (MLS) $99,000 NAMLS
• 2009-04-25 Listed $119,000 PARMLS
• 2008-09-10 Listed $119,000 NAMLS
• 2008-08-14 Listing Removed — PARMLS
• 2007-08-14 Listed $149,000 PARMLS
• 2007-02-03 Listing Removed — NAMLS
• 2006-09-26 Listed $219,000 NAMLS
• 2006-09-26 Listed $219,000 ECAR
• 2006-07-10 Listing Removed — NAMLS
• 2005-09-16 Listed $245,000 NAMLS
• 2005-09-16 Listed $245,000 ECAR
• 1980-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $53,800 Public Records
• 1979-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $41,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,307 · +7.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.