4989 N Holt Ave #103

Fresno, CA 93705

$125,000D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 843 sqft · Built 1970 · Condo · Active · 11 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,484/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax + insurance: −$166
• HOA: −$400
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$312
• Net cashflow: $-49/mo
• Annual: $-591/yr
• Cap rate: 5.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.69%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 1.19%
• Cash to close: $35,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $125k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-49 ($-591/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $116k (7.0% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $116k (7.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#469 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D+, employment D+, crime F.
• Fresno Unified (urban): math 18% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #327 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Slater Elementary (676 students, 94% FRL); Bullard High (math 28% / reading 55%, grade F, #498 of 1,170 statewide, top 43%, 2,492 students, 60% FRL) — zoned schools at 77% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 27% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 99 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,426 units permitted in Fresno County in 2024 (296 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fresno County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $90k; 39% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.7% in Fresno — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?