4989 N Holt Ave #103 · Fresno, CA 93705

$125,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 843 sqft · Condo public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1970 $400/mo HOA · 27% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Newly Redone 2-Story Condo;light Carpet Downstairs;newly Painted;new Ceiling Fan; New Roof; 1-Car Garage; Swimming Pool In Complex. Association Fees Include Water, Sewer, Garbage, Landscaping. Pool And Overall Association Maintenance. Convenient To Shopping, Bus Line, Elementary School And Hwy 99. Sf Rep Per Metroscan.

Key facts

• Brand new carpet
• Smart separation
• $400 HOA

Tags

• BRIGHT FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• OPEN LIVING AND DINING SPACE
• CONVENIENT BREAKFAST BAR
• CLEAN EFFICIENT KITCHEN
• SMART SEPARATION
• BRAND NEW CARPET

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with monthly fee of $400; HOA amenities include pool and landscape maintenance

Exterior

• Parking: 1 garage space
• Utilities: Electric service available; Public sewer; Public utilities
• Home design: Condominium; Two stories
• Construction: Stucco and wood siding exterior; Composition roof; Concrete foundation; Built with no solar
• Exterior features: Two levels; Urban lot setting; Private in-ground community pool

Interior

• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heat and air conditioning; Heating present; Cooling present
• Interior features: Carpet and tile flooring; Common area laundry
• Laundry & utility: Common area laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-49 ($-591/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $116k (7.0% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $116k (7.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.7% in Fresno — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#469 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D+, employment D+, crime F.
• Fresno Unified (urban): math 18% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #327 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Slater Elementary (676 students, 94% FRL); Bullard High (math 28% / reading 55%, grade F, #498 of 1,170 statewide, top 43%, 2,492 students, 60% FRL) — zoned schools at 77% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 96 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,426 units permitted in Fresno County in 2024 (296 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fresno County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $90k; 39% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 27% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $116,295 (7.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.69%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.19% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-19,810
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-5,967
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93705

• Rents YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 96
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,484 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$114 /mo · $1,369/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$400
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$312
• Net cashflow: $-49

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,546

Max offer price $116,295

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2693 W Fairmont Ave #103 Fresno, CA	2.0	1.0	672	$1,300	$1.93	12d	1	0.07mi
4942 N Holt Ave #103 Fresno, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,395	$1.40	24d	1	0.14mi
5175 N Feland Ave Fresno, CA	1.0	1.0	643	$1,525	$2.37	24d	1	0.47mi
4597 N Emerson Ave Apt 103 Fresno, CA	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,700	$1.55	24d	1	0.50mi
3515 W San Jose Ave Unit 26-101 Fresno, CA	1.0	1.0	720	$1,450	$2.01	16d	1	0.73mi
3515 W San Jose Ave Unit 28-101 Fresno, CA	1.0	1.0	720	$1,450	$2.01	44d	1	0.73mi
3515 W San Jose Ave Unit 9105 Fresno, CA	2.0	2.5	1115	$1,725	$1.55	44d	1	0.73mi
3515 W San Jose Ave Unit 3106 Fresno, CA	1.0	1.0	720	$1,400	$1.94	44d	1	0.73mi
3515 W San Jose Ave Unit 15-202 Fresno, CA	2.0	2.0	915	$1,550	$1.69	16d	1	0.73mi
1493 W Fairmont Ave Unit A Fresno, CA	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,595	$1.52	24d	1	0.80mi
5066-5098 N Marty Ave Fresno, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	961	$1,750	$1.82	20d	1	0.87mi
3274 W Ashlan Ave Fresno, CA	2.0	1.0	975	$1,535	$1.57	2d	5	0.89mi
4144 N Valentine Ave Unit 60-147 Fresno, CA	2.0	1.0	960	$1,695	$1.77	20d	1	0.93mi
4144 N Valentine Ave Unit 20-132 Fresno, CA	1.0	1.0	791	$1,395	$1.76	24d	1	0.94mi
4144 N Valentine Ave Unit 84-118 Fresno, CA	2.0	1.0	960	$1,695	$1.77	44d	1	0.94mi
4144 N Valentine Ave Unit 60-158 Fresno, CA	2.0	1.0	960	$1,695	$1.77	24d	1	0.94mi
4144 N Valentine Ave Fresno, CA	2.0	1.0	960	$1,450	$1.51	16d	1	0.94mi
4294 N Hughes Ave Fresno, CA	1.0	1.0	587	$1,355	$2.31	3d	9	0.97mi
1696 W Shaw Ave Unit AVE-104 Fresno, CA	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,700	$1.55	3d	1	1.07mi
4264 N Bengston Ave Unit 101 Fresno, CA	2.0	1.0	950	$1,450	$1.53	44d	1	1.09mi
1668 W Ashlan Ave Fresno, CA	2.0	1.0	877	$1,185	$1.35	24d	1	1.15mi
5350 N Brawley Ave Fresno, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	756	$1,530	$2.02	3d	8	1.16mi
3693 W Pomegranate Ln Fresno, CA	2.0	2.0	1120	$2,100	$1.88	24d	1	1.21mi
3770 W Barstow Ave #134 Fresno, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$1,750	$1.94	24d	1	1.25mi
3449 N Marks Ave Apt 102 Fresno, CA	2.0	1.0	827	$1,275	$1.54	24d	1	1.36mi
4290 W San Jose Ave Fresno, CA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1012	$1,595	$1.58	2d	1	1.48mi
3328 N Marks Ave Fresno, CA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,350	$1.69	2d	7	1.50mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $400 · $4,800/yr
• Likely covers: watersewertrashlandscapingpool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 695-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   listed $125,000 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,369 · $114/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,369 · $114/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 48 unhealthy d/yr today · 50 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,808
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,369
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,425
• − Management: −$1,425
• − HOA: −$4,800
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$2,473
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$594
• After-tax cash flow: $2/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fresno Unified
• NCES district ID: 0614550
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $36,095
• Composite: 26.83/100
• National rank: #7111
• State rank: #327 of 517 in CA

Livability — Fresno

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #469
• US rank: #15907

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fresno, CA
• County: Fresno County · 834,801 people
• City population: 593,114
• Metro: Fresno, CA
• Population (ZIP): 38,888
• Household income: $57,003
• Rent vs Own: 52.6% rent · 47.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 2217.0

Population outlook (Fresno County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,042,971 people
• By 2030: 1,072,198 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 1,122,408 · +7.6%
• By 2050: 1,157,251 · +11.0%
• By 2075: 1,182,575 · +13.4%
• By 2100: 1,105,899 · +6.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 62% Two or more races 34% White 22% Black 6% Asian 6% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 60%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 34% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fresno

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.5% · R 50.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: 2.1pp · 2024: -4.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.4 2020: D+7.8 2016: D+3.9 2012: R+2.9 2008: D+2.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -331.23%
• Current HPI: 399.0061
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.19%
• Metro: Fresno, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+468.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $125,000 FRESNOMLS
• 2026-05-14 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 2000-12-22 Sold (Public Records) $22,000 Public Records
• 2000-12-22 Sold (MLS) $22,000 FRESNOMLS
• 2000-10-27 Delisted — FRESNOMLS
• 2000-10-27 Price Changed $23,000 FRESNOMLS
• 2000-08-14 Listed $22,000 FRESNOMLS

Property tax history

+13.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,369 · +213.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.