1321 Bay Dr

Bolivar Peninsula, TX 77650

$329,900D+

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,690 sqft · Built 1985 · SingleFamily · Pending · 572 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,738/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,730
• Tax + insurance: −$962
• HOA: −$8
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$575
• Net cashflow: $-536/mo
• Annual: $-6,437/yr
• Cap rate: 5.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.43%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $92,372

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $330k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-536 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $235k (28.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $274k (17.0% below list).
• It's been on market 572 days — a 12% lower offer ($290k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $235k (28.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#719 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Galveston ISD (town): math 33% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #514 of 826 in TX (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Oppe El (math 67% / reading 60%, grade B, #291 of 4,322 statewide, top 7%, 610 students, 63% FRL); Central Middle (math 18% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,445 of 1,662 statewide, top 88%, 879 students, 80% FRL); Ball H S (math 17% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,085 of 1,632 statewide, top 67%, 1,934 students, 73% FRL) — zoned schools at 72% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: 774 active listings in the ZIP; 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $149k (31%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 2.1% in Bolivar Peninsula — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 572 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?