1321 Bay Dr · Bolivar Peninsula, TX 77650

$329,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,690 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 572 Days on market

Built 1985 4,499 sqft lot $195/sqft · 22% below area Est $422k · 22% under $8/mo HOA ↓ 31% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Appreciation +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Sweet set up in the sought after Kona Kai HOA! Canal front with fishermen in mind! Features include a boat lift, boat house, bulkhead, awesome cooking area downstairs for entertaining, bath, outdoor shower, garage for storage, and so much more! And that's just the outside....inside you'll enjoy 4 bedrooms, open living/kitchen/dining PLUS a large upstairs loft area with additional beds! Just a couple of minutes to the Intracoastal Waterway direct from your boat! House will come furnished and ready to go for your friends and family! Galveston Bay is just a short boat ride over to restaurants and The Strand for a full day of fun! Great fishing, crabbing and fun right from your deck! And the views are priceless! So, grab your coffee and start enjoying the scenery with wildlife and ICW. You will fall in love with this place!

Key facts

• Boat lift
• Bulkhead
• Boat house

Tags

• BOAT LIFT
• BOAT HOUSE
• BULKHEAD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $330k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-536 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $235k (28.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $274k (17.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $235k (28.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 2.1% in Bolivar Peninsula — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#719 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Galveston ISD (town): math 33% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #514 of 826 in TX (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 774 active listings in the ZIP; 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 572 days — a 12% lower offer ($290k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $149k (31%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $235,133 (28.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 572 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.43%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $422,448
• List price: $329,900
• Delta: -21.91%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-87,326
• Equity at exit: $49,189

10-year hold

• IRR: -26.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.29×
• Total profit: $-118,821
• Equity at exit: $28,524

Cash invested: $92,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77650

• Home prices YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 774
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,738 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,730
• Tax from tax record: −$398 /mo · $4,771/yr
• Insurance: −$137
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$8
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$575
• Net cashflow: $-536

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,417

Max offer price $235,133

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-350	-5% $-443	+0% $-536	+5% $-630	+10% $-723
Rent	-10% $-753	-5% $-645	+0% $-536	+5% $-428	+10% $-320
Rate	-1.0pp $-370	-0.5pp $-453	base $-536	+0.5pp $-622	+1.0pp $-709

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,475
• Closing costs: $9,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $8 · $96/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-21
   statusdays on market $329,900 Pending 572 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $329,900 Active 571 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $329,900 Active 570 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $329,900 Active 569 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   statusdays on market $329,900 Active 568 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $329,900 Pending 565 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $329,900 Pending 564 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $329,900 Pending 563 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $329,900 Pending 560 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $329,900 Pending 559 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $329,900 Pending 557 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $329,900 Pending 556 DOM
13. 2026-03-24
    price $329,900 831-char remark

    Show marketing remark (831 chars)

    Sweet set up in the sought after Kona Kai HOA! Canal front with fishermen in mind! Features include a boat lift, boat house, bulkhead, awesome cooking area downstairs for entertaining, bath, outdoor shower, garage for storage, and so much more! And that's just the outside....inside you'll enjoy 4 bedrooms, open living/kitchen/dining PLUS a large upstairs loft area with additional beds! Just a couple of minutes to the Intracoastal Waterway direct from your boat! House will come furnished and ready to go for your friends and family! Galveston Bay is just a short boat ride over to restaurants and The Strand for a full day of fun! Great fishing, crabbing and fun right from your deck! And the views are priceless! So, grab your coffee and start enjoying the scenery with wildlife and ICW. You will fall in love with this place!

14. 2026-03-24
    price $329,000 831-char remark

    Show marketing remark (831 chars)

    Sweet set up in the sought after Kona Kai HOA! Canal front with fishermen in mind! Features include a boat lift, boat house, bulkhead, awesome cooking area downstairs for entertaining, bath, outdoor shower, garage for storage, and so much more! And that's just the outside....inside you'll enjoy 4 bedrooms, open living/kitchen/dining PLUS a large upstairs loft area with additional beds! Just a couple of minutes to the Intracoastal Waterway direct from your boat! House will come furnished and ready to go for your friends and family! Galveston Bay is just a short boat ride over to restaurants and The Strand for a full day of fun! Great fishing, crabbing and fun right from your deck! And the views are priceless! So, grab your coffee and start enjoying the scenery with wildlife and ICW. You will fall in love with this place!

15. 2025-10-16
    price $349,000 831-char remark

    Show marketing remark (831 chars)

    Sweet set up in the sought after Kona Kai HOA! Canal front with fishermen in mind! Features include a boat lift, boat house, bulkhead, awesome cooking area downstairs for entertaining, bath, outdoor shower, garage for storage, and so much more! And that's just the outside....inside you'll enjoy 4 bedrooms, open living/kitchen/dining PLUS a large upstairs loft area with additional beds! Just a couple of minutes to the Intracoastal Waterway direct from your boat! House will come furnished and ready to go for your friends and family! Galveston Bay is just a short boat ride over to restaurants and The Strand for a full day of fun! Great fishing, crabbing and fun right from your deck! And the views are priceless! So, grab your coffee and start enjoying the scenery with wildlife and ICW. You will fall in love with this place!

16. 2025-08-04
    price $375,000 831-char remark

    Show marketing remark (831 chars)

    Sweet set up in the sought after Kona Kai HOA! Canal front with fishermen in mind! Features include a boat lift, boat house, bulkhead, awesome cooking area downstairs for entertaining, bath, outdoor shower, garage for storage, and so much more! And that's just the outside....inside you'll enjoy 4 bedrooms, open living/kitchen/dining PLUS a large upstairs loft area with additional beds! Just a couple of minutes to the Intracoastal Waterway direct from your boat! House will come furnished and ready to go for your friends and family! Galveston Bay is just a short boat ride over to restaurants and The Strand for a full day of fun! Great fishing, crabbing and fun right from your deck! And the views are priceless! So, grab your coffee and start enjoying the scenery with wildlife and ICW. You will fall in love with this place!

17. 2025-03-31
    price $399,000 831-char remark

    Show marketing remark (831 chars)

    Sweet set up in the sought after Kona Kai HOA! Canal front with fishermen in mind! Features include a boat lift, boat house, bulkhead, awesome cooking area downstairs for entertaining, bath, outdoor shower, garage for storage, and so much more! And that's just the outside....inside you'll enjoy 4 bedrooms, open living/kitchen/dining PLUS a large upstairs loft area with additional beds! Just a couple of minutes to the Intracoastal Waterway direct from your boat! House will come furnished and ready to go for your friends and family! Galveston Bay is just a short boat ride over to restaurants and The Strand for a full day of fun! Great fishing, crabbing and fun right from your deck! And the views are priceless! So, grab your coffee and start enjoying the scenery with wildlife and ICW. You will fall in love with this place!

18. 2025-02-09
    price $424,000 831-char remark

    Show marketing remark (831 chars)

    Sweet set up in the sought after Kona Kai HOA! Canal front with fishermen in mind! Features include a boat lift, boat house, bulkhead, awesome cooking area downstairs for entertaining, bath, outdoor shower, garage for storage, and so much more! And that's just the outside....inside you'll enjoy 4 bedrooms, open living/kitchen/dining PLUS a large upstairs loft area with additional beds! Just a couple of minutes to the Intracoastal Waterway direct from your boat! House will come furnished and ready to go for your friends and family! Galveston Bay is just a short boat ride over to restaurants and The Strand for a full day of fun! Great fishing, crabbing and fun right from your deck! And the views are priceless! So, grab your coffee and start enjoying the scenery with wildlife and ICW. You will fall in love with this place!

19. 2024-11-21
    price $449,000 831-char remark

    Show marketing remark (831 chars)

    Sweet set up in the sought after Kona Kai HOA! Canal front with fishermen in mind! Features include a boat lift, boat house, bulkhead, awesome cooking area downstairs for entertaining, bath, outdoor shower, garage for storage, and so much more! And that's just the outside....inside you'll enjoy 4 bedrooms, open living/kitchen/dining PLUS a large upstairs loft area with additional beds! Just a couple of minutes to the Intracoastal Waterway direct from your boat! House will come furnished and ready to go for your friends and family! Galveston Bay is just a short boat ride over to restaurants and The Strand for a full day of fun! Great fishing, crabbing and fun right from your deck! And the views are priceless! So, grab your coffee and start enjoying the scenery with wildlife and ICW. You will fall in love with this place!

20. 2024-11-21
    listed $479,000 Active 831-char remark

    Show marketing remark (831 chars)

    Sweet set up in the sought after Kona Kai HOA! Canal front with fishermen in mind! Features include a boat lift, boat house, bulkhead, awesome cooking area downstairs for entertaining, bath, outdoor shower, garage for storage, and so much more! And that's just the outside....inside you'll enjoy 4 bedrooms, open living/kitchen/dining PLUS a large upstairs loft area with additional beds! Just a couple of minutes to the Intracoastal Waterway direct from your boat! House will come furnished and ready to go for your friends and family! Galveston Bay is just a short boat ride over to restaurants and The Strand for a full day of fun! Great fishing, crabbing and fun right from your deck! And the views are priceless! So, grab your coffee and start enjoying the scenery with wildlife and ICW. You will fall in love with this place!

21. 2022-06-23
    soldstatus
22. 2022-06-03
    soldstatus Sold
23. 2022-05-02
    status Pending
24. 2022-04-23
    historical 847-char remark

    Show marketing remark (847 chars)

    This canal house has everything for the fisherman and plenty of room for friends and family. You will love the Bay views and sunsets from the huge deck above the boathouse. There is also a full bath on the ground floor with a separate outdoor shower. The view from the street side of the house will allow views for miles of the bay and Intracoastal Canal and wetlands full of wildlife. With your boat in the lift, you can be fishing in East Bay in only a few minutes. The house comes fully furnished and equipped with everything needed to move in and start enjoying all that Bolivar Peninsula has to offer. Four bedrooms on the main floor and a large bunk room upstairs with three bunk beds and a trundle to easily sleep 8 in that room alone. The downstairs has lots of great storage and a FUN cooking and entertainment area overlooking the canal.

25. 2022-04-23
    status Option Pending

    Show marketing remark (847 chars)

    This canal house has everything for the fisherman and plenty of room for friends and family. You will love the Bay views and sunsets from the huge deck above the boathouse. There is also a full bath on the ground floor with a separate outdoor shower. The view from the street side of the house will allow views for miles of the bay and Intracoastal Canal and wetlands full of wildlife. With your boat in the lift, you can be fishing in East Bay in only a few minutes. The house comes fully furnished and equipped with everything needed to move in and start enjoying all that Bolivar Peninsula has to offer. Four bedrooms on the main floor and a large bunk room upstairs with three bunk beds and a trundle to easily sleep 8 in that room alone. The downstairs has lots of great storage and a FUN cooking and entertainment area overlooking the canal.

26. 2022-03-01
    listed $475,000 Active 847-char remark

    Show marketing remark (847 chars)

    This canal house has everything for the fisherman and plenty of room for friends and family. You will love the Bay views and sunsets from the huge deck above the boathouse. There is also a full bath on the ground floor with a separate outdoor shower. The view from the street side of the house will allow views for miles of the bay and Intracoastal Canal and wetlands full of wildlife. With your boat in the lift, you can be fishing in East Bay in only a few minutes. The house comes fully furnished and equipped with everything needed to move in and start enjoying all that Bolivar Peninsula has to offer. Four bedrooms on the main floor and a large bunk room upstairs with three bunk beds and a trundle to easily sleep 8 in that room alone. The downstairs has lots of great storage and a FUN cooking and entertainment area overlooking the canal.

27. 2022-02-28
    listed $475,000 Active
28. 1995-09-25
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,771 · $398/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,037 · $503/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,266/yr (+$105/mo · 26.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,859
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,480
• − Property taxes: −$4,771
• − Insurance: −$6,768
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,629
• − Management: −$2,629
• − HOA: −$96
• − Depreciation: −$9,597
• Taxable loss: −$12,111
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,907
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,531/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Galveston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4820280
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,162
• Composite: 30.22/100
• National rank: #6299
• State rank: #514 of 826 in TX

Livability — Bolivar Peninsula

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #719
• US rank: #13437

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bolivar Peninsula, TX
• City population: 2,957
• Population (ZIP): 2,362

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 10% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Romanian 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 14% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -4.52%
• Current HPI: 231.5074
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-30.5% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $329,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $329,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-16 Price Changed $349,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-04 Price Changed $375,000 HARMLS
• 2025-03-31 Price Changed $399,000 HARMLS
• 2025-02-09 Price Changed $424,000 HARMLS
• 2024-11-21 Price Changed $449,000 HARMLS
• 2024-11-21 Listed $479,000 HARMLS
• 2022-06-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-06-03 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2022-05-02 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-04-23 Delisted — Galveston MLS
• 2022-04-23 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-03-01 Listed $475,000 Galveston MLS
• 2022-02-28 Listed $475,000 HARMLS
• 1995-09-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,771 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.