8074 Mira Mar Rd

Phelan, CA 92371

$365,000D+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,848 sqft · Built 1988 · Manufactured · Active · 38 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,508/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,914
• Tax + insurance: −$468
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$527
• Net cashflow: $-401/mo
• Annual: $-4,812/yr
• Cap rate: 4.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.71%
• DSCR: 0.79
• 1% rule: 0.69%
• Cash to close: $102,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $365k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-401 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $294k (19.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $251k (31.3% below list).
• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($354k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $251k (31.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (6.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 48/100 on livability (#1,215 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Snowline Joint Unified (rural): math 34% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #722 of 1,400 in CA (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Serrano High (2,145 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: 292 active listings in the ZIP; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 4 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask is 4% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $280k; 30% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.6% in Phelan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.