8074 Mira Mar Rd · Phelan, CA 92371

$365,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,848 sqft · Manufactured public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1988 2.02 ac lot Est $451k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +8.3/10.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.4/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

2 acres plus of no one bothering you, that's just the start. Home has been completely remodeled with new roof, new windows, new paint, new flooring, new kitchen, new furnace and updated bathrooms. Super spacious home with living room area and dining room. Master bedroom is at one end of home with large bathroom including shower, vanity and tub. Family room area is off of new kitchen and has a fireplace in the corner. Three bedrooms round out the north side of the home with a full bathroom. Inside laundry room off of kitchen area. Need garage space? How about a 6 car garage/barn to store your vehicle and toys. Upstairs in garage is a nice storage area or additional fun room. Entire property is fully fenced.

Key facts

• 2.02 acre lot
• 4 garage spots
• Built 1988

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Rural community

Exterior

• Parking: Garage parking; 6 parking spaces (6 garage spaces)
• Utilities: Propane available; Electricity connected; Telephone available in street; District/public water; Septic (type unknown)
• Home design: Manufactured house; Single-story; No attached accessory dwelling unit
• Construction: Permanent foundation; Certified 433A
• Exterior features: Chain-link fencing; Treed lot; Front yard and back yard; No pool; Rural setting; Has view; Access via country road; Unpaved road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Propane range; Propane oven; Gas and electric range; Quartz countertops; Formal dining area
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms on the main level; Primary bedroom on main level
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Floor furnace; Evaporative cooling
• Interior features: One-level living; Turnkey condition; Formal dining room; Quartz counters; Shower in tub and separate tub and shower; Wood-burning fireplace in family room; Has cooling (evaporative)
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $365k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-401 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $294k (19.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $251k (31.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $251k (31.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.6% in Phelan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 48/100 on livability (#1,215 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Snowline Joint Unified (rural): math 34% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #722 of 1,400 in CA (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Serrano High (2,145 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: 292 active listings in the ZIP; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (6.6% local appreciation)).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($354k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask is 4% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $280k; 30% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $250,791 (31.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.71%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $450,912
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8976 Tumbleweed	0.75mi	4/2.0	1,760 (-5%)	4mo	$430,000	$244	54
9283 Atsina Rd	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,576 (-15%)	2mo	$240,000	$152	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.62% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.91×
• Total profit: $93,288
• Equity at exit: $243,808

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.85×
• Total profit: $291,247
• Equity at exit: $455,086

Cash invested: $102,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92371

• Home prices YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 292
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,508 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,914
• Tax from tax record: −$316 /mo · $3,793/yr
• Insurance: −$152
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$527
• Net cashflow: $-401

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,016

Max offer price $294,161

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $91,250
• Closing costs: $10,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $365,000 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $365,000 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $365,000 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $365,000 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $365,000 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $365,000 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   pricestatus $365,000 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-05-21
   status Pending Sale
9. 2026-05-01
   historical Active Under Contract
10. 2026-04-23
    listed $350,000 Active
11. 2026-04-16
    historical $350,000
12. 2020-05-28
    soldstatus $280,000 Closed Sale 717-char remark

    Show marketing remark (717 chars)

    2 acres plus of no one bothering you, that's just the start. Home has been completely remodeled with new roof, new windows, new paint, new flooring, new kitchen, new furnace and updated bathrooms. Super spacious home with living room area and dining room. Master bedroom is at one end of home with large bathroom including shower, vanity and tub. Family room area is off of new kitchen and has a fireplace in the corner. Three bedrooms round out the north side of the home with a full bathroom. Inside laundry room off of kitchen area. Need garage space? How about a 6 car garage/barn to store your vehicle and toys. Upstairs in garage is a nice storage area or additional fun room. Entire property is fully fenced.

13. 2020-05-28
    soldstatus $280,000

    Show marketing remark (717 chars)

    2 acres plus of no one bothering you, that's just the start. Home has been completely remodeled with new roof, new windows, new paint, new flooring, new kitchen, new furnace and updated bathrooms. Super spacious home with living room area and dining room. Master bedroom is at one end of home with large bathroom including shower, vanity and tub. Family room area is off of new kitchen and has a fireplace in the corner. Three bedrooms round out the north side of the home with a full bathroom. Inside laundry room off of kitchen area. Need garage space? How about a 6 car garage/barn to store your vehicle and toys. Upstairs in garage is a nice storage area or additional fun room. Entire property is fully fenced.

14. 2020-05-03
    status Pending Sale 717-char remark

    Show marketing remark (717 chars)

    2 acres plus of no one bothering you, that's just the start. Home has been completely remodeled with new roof, new windows, new paint, new flooring, new kitchen, new furnace and updated bathrooms. Super spacious home with living room area and dining room. Master bedroom is at one end of home with large bathroom including shower, vanity and tub. Family room area is off of new kitchen and has a fireplace in the corner. Three bedrooms round out the north side of the home with a full bathroom. Inside laundry room off of kitchen area. Need garage space? How about a 6 car garage/barn to store your vehicle and toys. Upstairs in garage is a nice storage area or additional fun room. Entire property is fully fenced.

15. 2020-03-20
    listed $279,900 Active 717-char remark

    Show marketing remark (717 chars)

    2 acres plus of no one bothering you, that's just the start. Home has been completely remodeled with new roof, new windows, new paint, new flooring, new kitchen, new furnace and updated bathrooms. Super spacious home with living room area and dining room. Master bedroom is at one end of home with large bathroom including shower, vanity and tub. Family room area is off of new kitchen and has a fireplace in the corner. Three bedrooms round out the north side of the home with a full bathroom. Inside laundry room off of kitchen area. Need garage space? How about a 6 car garage/barn to store your vehicle and toys. Upstairs in garage is a nice storage area or additional fun room. Entire property is fully fenced.

16. 2020-01-14
    soldstatus $120,000
17. 2015-03-30
    historical
18. 2012-01-11
    soldstatus $51,000
19. 2007-01-30
    soldstatus $250,000
20. 2007-01-30
    soldstatus $250,000
21. 2006-12-24
    soldstatus $249,900
22. 2006-07-19
    listed $249,990
23. 2005-08-27
    listed $275,000
24. 2001-09-26
    soldstatus $117,000
25. 2001-09-20
    soldstatus $117,000
26. 1995-08-02
    soldstatus $80,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,793 · $316/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,793 · $316/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 31 unhealthy d/yr today · 37 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,095
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,446
• − Property taxes: −$3,793
• − Insurance: −$1,825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,408
• − Management: −$2,408
• − Depreciation: −$10,618
• Taxable loss: −$11,402
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,736
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,076/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Snowline Joint Unified
• NCES district ID: 0636970
• Math proficiency: 34% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $57,625
• Composite: 36.84/100
• National rank: #9157
• State rank: #722 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Phelan

• Score: 48/100
• State rank: #1215
• US rank: #26148

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phelan, CA
• City population: 21,678
• Population (ZIP): 21,678

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 47% White 45% Two or more races 22% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 26% Korean 2%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.62%
• Current HPI: 425.631
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+337.5% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Pending — CRMLS
• 2026-05-01 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2026-04-23 Listed $350,000 CRMLS
• 2026-04-16 Coming Soon $350,000 CRMLS
• 2020-05-28 Sold (Public Records) $280,000 Public Records
• 2020-05-28 Sold (MLS) $280,000 CRMLS
• 2020-05-03 Pending — CRMLS
• 2020-03-20 Listed $279,900 CRMLS
• 2020-01-14 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records
• 2015-03-30 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2012-01-11 Sold (MLS) $51,000 CRMLS
• 2007-01-30 Sold (Public Records) $250,000 Public Records
• 2007-01-30 Sold (MLS) $250,000 CRMLS
• 2006-12-24 Sold (MLS) $249,900 CRMLS
• 2006-07-19 Listed $249,990 CRMLS
• 2005-08-27 Listed $275,000 AVMLS
• 2001-09-26 Sold (MLS) $117,000 CRMLS
• 2001-09-20 Sold (Public Records) $117,000 Public Records
• 1995-08-02 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,793 · +6.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.