4 Wilson's Way

Dover, MA 02030

$5,495,000D

5 bd · 6.5 ba · 8,144 sqft · Built 2020 · SingleFamily · Active · 29 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $33,936/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$28,816
• Tax + insurance: −$5,798
• HOA: −$200
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$7,127
• Net cashflow: $-8,004/mo
• Annual: $-96,053/yr
• Cap rate: 4.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.24%
• DSCR: 0.72
• 1% rule: 0.62%
• Cash to close: $1,538,600

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/6.5-bath single-family listed at $5.50M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-8k ($-96k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $4.08M (25.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $3.39M (38.2% below list).
• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($5.41M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $3.39M (38.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($38k loan paydown + $-31k appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#95 in MA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Dover-Sherborn (rural): math 78% / reading 80% proficiency, ranked #3 of 302 in MA (top 1%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 3% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Dover-Sherborn Regional Middle School (math 75% / reading 77%, grade A, #1 of 305 statewide, top 0%, 482 students, 0% FRL); Dover-Sherborn Regional High (math 92% / reading 98%, grade A+, #1 of 343 statewide, top 0%, 669 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 0% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 958 units permitted in Norfolk County in 2024 (305 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Norfolk County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $950k; list at $5.50M implies a 478% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$316k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 54% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 1.2% in Dover — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
• What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
• Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?