4 Wilson's Way · Dover, MA 02030

$5,495,000

5 bd · 6.5 ba · 8,144 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 29 Days on market

Built 2020 2.36 ac lot Est $6336k · 13% under $200/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.5/15.0
• Schools +7.9/10.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Dover's Finest Location | A setting that inspires, within acres of lushly forested conservation land with pond view. Lot #4 is a 3.21 Acre plot located on Wilson's Way, Dover's newest luxury subdivision comprised of six home sites on a gated, tree-lined cul-de-sac. Residents will have privileged access to nearby conservation land with six-acre pond and walking trails. Close to major routes, train, restaurants & shopping. The Town of Dover offers top ranked schools & exceptional amenities. Just 15 miles from Boston.

Key facts

• Designer kitchen
• Home theater
• Walk-in wine storage

Tags

• PRIVATE POND
• DESIGNER KITCHEN
• WALK-IN WINE STORAGE
• BONUS ENTERTAINING ROOM
• HOME THEATER
• RESORT STYLE POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property sits on approximately 2.36 acres; Address: 4 Wilson's Way, Dover MA 02030; Directions: Wilsondale to Wilson's Way; Some plantings excluded; swingset and TVs included
• HOA & community: Has association with quarterly fee; Association fee $600 quarterly; Community features include shopping, tennis courts, park, walking/jogging trails, stables, conservation area, highway access, house of worship, and public school access

Exterior

• Parking: Attached heated garage with garage door opener, storage and 3 garage spaces; 3 covered spaces; 5 open/off-street parking spaces; 8 total parking spaces; Paved drive
• Security: Security system
• Utilities: Private water; Private sewer; 200+ amp electric service; Gas service for gas range
• Home design: Single family residence; Above-grade and below-grade finished living areas; Has waterview
• Construction: Frame construction; Shingle roof; Concrete perimeter foundation; Year built per public records
• Exterior features: Porch, covered patio/deck, deck and patio; Inground heated private pool; Private spa/hot tub; Professional landscaping with decorative lighting; Sprinkler system; Fenced yard; Pond and waterfront views; Paved driveway on a private dead-end road

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen with dining area, pantry, stone/granite/solid countertops, island, and open floor plan; Range, Oven, Dishwasher, Microwave
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on second floor with full bathroom and walk-in closet; Four additional bedrooms on second floor, most with full bathrooms and walk-in closets
• Flooring: Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: Five full bathrooms; Two half bathrooms; Master bathroom included
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Radiant heating; Natural gas; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Custom built closets and cabinetry; Office; Mud room; Play room; Media room; Exercise room; Sauna/steam/hot tub; Wet bar; Full finished walk-out basement; 14 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on second floor; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/6.5-bath single-family listed at $5.50M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-8k ($-96k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $4.08M (25.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $3.39M (38.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $3.39M (38.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 1.2% in Dover — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#95 in MA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Dover-Sherborn (rural): math 78% / reading 80% proficiency, ranked #3 of 302 in MA (top 1%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 3% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Dover-Sherborn Regional Middle School (math 75% / reading 77%, grade A, #1 of 305 statewide, top 0%, 482 students, 0% FRL); Dover-Sherborn Regional High (math 92% / reading 98%, grade A+, #1 of 343 statewide, top 0%, 669 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 0% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 958 units permitted in Norfolk County in 2024 (305 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($38k loan paydown + $-31k appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• Norfolk County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$316k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($5.41M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $950k; list at $5.50M implies a 478% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 54% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $3,393,600 (38.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
7. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
8. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.24%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 13.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $6,336,032
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
98 Heather Ln	0.45mi	6/8.0 (+1)	8,100 (-0%)	5mo	$6,300,000	$778	63
267 Dedham St	0.62mi	5/5.5	9,196 (+13%)	5mo	$3,350,000	$364	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.57% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-817,323
• Equity at exit: $1,440,961

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-813,120
• Equity at exit: $1,613,077

Cash invested: $1,538,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 20 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Massachusetts: 20 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Cambridge / Boston historically rent-controlled (preempted 1994 but consideration ongoing); strong tenant protections; court backlogs.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 02030

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 26
• Price-to-rent: 13.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $33,936 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$28,816
• Tax from tax record: −$3,508 /mo · $42,095/yr
• Insurance: −$2,290
• HOA: −$200
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$7,127
• Net cashflow: $-8,004

Break-even live

Break-even rent $44,068

Max offer price $4,080,982

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-4,894	-5% $-6,449	+0% $-8,004	+5% $-9,560	+10% $-11,115
Rent	-10% $-10,685	-5% $-9,345	+0% $-8,004	+5% $-6,664	+10% $-5,323
Rate	-1.0pp $-5,237	-0.5pp $-6,607	base $-8,004	+0.5pp $-9,428	+1.0pp $-10,877

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $1,373,750
• Closing costs: $164,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21 Aly Raisman Way Unit 1262024P Needham, MA	5.0	4.5	8998	$33,936	$3.77	2d	1	1.15mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $200 · $2,400/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $5,495,000 Active 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $5,495,000 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $5,495,000 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $5,495,000 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $5,495,000 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $5,495,000 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $5,495,000 Active 20 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $5,495,000 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $5,495,000 Active 18 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $5,495,000 Active 15 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $5,495,000 Active 14 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $5,495,000 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $5,495,000 Active 12 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $5,495,000 Active 11 DOM
15. 2026-05-20
    listed $5,495,000 New
16. 2020-08-28
    soldstatus $950,000 Sold 528-char remark

    Show marketing remark (528 chars)

    Dover's Finest Location | A setting that inspires, within acres of lushly forested conservation land with pond view. Lot #4 is a 3.21 Acre plot located on Wilson's Way, Dover's newest luxury subdivision comprised of six home sites on a gated, tree-lined cul-de-sac. Residents will have privileged access to nearby conservation land with six-acre pond and walking trails. Close to major routes, train, restaurants & shopping. The Town of Dover offers top ranked schools & exceptional amenities. Just 15 miles from Boston.

17. 2020-07-23
    status Under Agreement 528-char remark

    Show marketing remark (528 chars)

    Dover's Finest Location | A setting that inspires, within acres of lushly forested conservation land with pond view. Lot #4 is a 3.21 Acre plot located on Wilson's Way, Dover's newest luxury subdivision comprised of six home sites on a gated, tree-lined cul-de-sac. Residents will have privileged access to nearby conservation land with six-acre pond and walking trails. Close to major routes, train, restaurants & shopping. The Town of Dover offers top ranked schools & exceptional amenities. Just 15 miles from Boston.

18. 2020-07-21
    price $1,050,000 528-char remark

    Show marketing remark (528 chars)

    Dover's Finest Location | A setting that inspires, within acres of lushly forested conservation land with pond view. Lot #4 is a 3.21 Acre plot located on Wilson's Way, Dover's newest luxury subdivision comprised of six home sites on a gated, tree-lined cul-de-sac. Residents will have privileged access to nearby conservation land with six-acre pond and walking trails. Close to major routes, train, restaurants & shopping. The Town of Dover offers top ranked schools & exceptional amenities. Just 15 miles from Boston.

19. 2020-04-01
    status Back On Market 528-char remark

    Show marketing remark (528 chars)

    Dover's Finest Location | A setting that inspires, within acres of lushly forested conservation land with pond view. Lot #4 is a 3.21 Acre plot located on Wilson's Way, Dover's newest luxury subdivision comprised of six home sites on a gated, tree-lined cul-de-sac. Residents will have privileged access to nearby conservation land with six-acre pond and walking trails. Close to major routes, train, restaurants & shopping. The Town of Dover offers top ranked schools & exceptional amenities. Just 15 miles from Boston.

20. 2020-03-17
    status Under Agreement 528-char remark

    Show marketing remark (528 chars)

    Dover's Finest Location | A setting that inspires, within acres of lushly forested conservation land with pond view. Lot #4 is a 3.21 Acre plot located on Wilson's Way, Dover's newest luxury subdivision comprised of six home sites on a gated, tree-lined cul-de-sac. Residents will have privileged access to nearby conservation land with six-acre pond and walking trails. Close to major routes, train, restaurants & shopping. The Town of Dover offers top ranked schools & exceptional amenities. Just 15 miles from Boston.

21. 2020-03-03
    historical Contingent 528-char remark

    Show marketing remark (528 chars)

    Dover's Finest Location | A setting that inspires, within acres of lushly forested conservation land with pond view. Lot #4 is a 3.21 Acre plot located on Wilson's Way, Dover's newest luxury subdivision comprised of six home sites on a gated, tree-lined cul-de-sac. Residents will have privileged access to nearby conservation land with six-acre pond and walking trails. Close to major routes, train, restaurants & shopping. The Town of Dover offers top ranked schools & exceptional amenities. Just 15 miles from Boston.

22. 2020-01-16
    status Back On Market 528-char remark

    Show marketing remark (528 chars)

    Dover's Finest Location | A setting that inspires, within acres of lushly forested conservation land with pond view. Lot #4 is a 3.21 Acre plot located on Wilson's Way, Dover's newest luxury subdivision comprised of six home sites on a gated, tree-lined cul-de-sac. Residents will have privileged access to nearby conservation land with six-acre pond and walking trails. Close to major routes, train, restaurants & shopping. The Town of Dover offers top ranked schools & exceptional amenities. Just 15 miles from Boston.

23. 2020-01-06
    status Under Agreement 528-char remark

    Show marketing remark (528 chars)

    Dover's Finest Location | A setting that inspires, within acres of lushly forested conservation land with pond view. Lot #4 is a 3.21 Acre plot located on Wilson's Way, Dover's newest luxury subdivision comprised of six home sites on a gated, tree-lined cul-de-sac. Residents will have privileged access to nearby conservation land with six-acre pond and walking trails. Close to major routes, train, restaurants & shopping. The Town of Dover offers top ranked schools & exceptional amenities. Just 15 miles from Boston.

24. 2019-12-23
    historical Contingent 528-char remark

    Show marketing remark (528 chars)

    Dover's Finest Location | A setting that inspires, within acres of lushly forested conservation land with pond view. Lot #4 is a 3.21 Acre plot located on Wilson's Way, Dover's newest luxury subdivision comprised of six home sites on a gated, tree-lined cul-de-sac. Residents will have privileged access to nearby conservation land with six-acre pond and walking trails. Close to major routes, train, restaurants & shopping. The Town of Dover offers top ranked schools & exceptional amenities. Just 15 miles from Boston.

25. 2019-05-07
    listed $1,150,000 New 528-char remark

    Show marketing remark (528 chars)

    Dover's Finest Location | A setting that inspires, within acres of lushly forested conservation land with pond view. Lot #4 is a 3.21 Acre plot located on Wilson's Way, Dover's newest luxury subdivision comprised of six home sites on a gated, tree-lined cul-de-sac. Residents will have privileged access to nearby conservation land with six-acre pond and walking trails. Close to major routes, train, restaurants & shopping. The Town of Dover offers top ranked schools & exceptional amenities. Just 15 miles from Boston.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $42,095 · $3,508/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $54,842 · $4,570/mo
• Expected delta: +$12,747/yr (+$1,062/mo · 30.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 54% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $407,232
• − Mortgage interest: −$307,805
• − Property taxes: −$42,095
• − Insurance: −$27,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$32,579
• − Management: −$32,579
• − HOA: −$2,400
• − Depreciation: −$159,855
• Taxable loss: −$197,555
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$47,413
• After-tax cash flow: $-48,640/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dover-Sherborn
• NCES district ID: 2504290
• Math proficiency: 78% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 80% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $178,417
• Composite: 79.1/100
• National rank: #65
• State rank: #3 of 302 in MA

Livability — Dover

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #95
• US rank: #5011

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,893

Population outlook (Norfolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 737,259 people
• By 2030: 755,213 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 786,961 · +6.7%
• By 2050: 813,019 · +10.3%
• By 2075: 861,214 · +16.8%
• By 2100: 845,063 · +14.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Asian 11% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Scandinavian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · China, Canada, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Chinese 5% Other Indo-European 4% German/W. Germanic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Norfolk

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+28.8) · D 63.3% · R 34.6% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.2pp toward D · 2008: 18.5pp · 2024: 28.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+28.8 2020: D+36.3 2016: D+27.9 2012: D+16.1 2008: D+18.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.57%
• Current HPI: 235.7299
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.28%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	3	$17B
▸Insurance	2	$84B
▸Retail	2	$76B
▸Life Sciences	1	$43B
▸Energy Technology	1	$31B
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$18B

Price history

+377.8% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $5,495,000 MLS PIN
• 2020-08-28 Sold (MLS) $950,000 MLS PIN
• 2020-07-23 Pending — MLS PIN
• 2020-07-21 Price Changed $1,050,000 MLS PIN
• 2020-04-01 Relisted — MLS PIN
• 2020-03-17 Pending — MLS PIN
• 2020-03-03 Contingent — MLS PIN
• 2020-01-16 Relisted — MLS PIN
• 2020-01-06 Pending — MLS PIN
• 2019-12-23 Contingent — MLS PIN
• 2019-05-07 Listed $1,150,000 MLS PIN

Property tax history

+18.7%/yr

Latest (2023): $42,095 · +5.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.