16671 Kingman Reef St

Wimauma, FL 33598

$305,000D

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,914 sqft · Built 2021 · SingleFamily · Active · 385 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,678/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,599
• Tax + insurance: −$778
• HOA: −$14
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$562
• Net cashflow: $-275/mo
• Annual: $-3,302/yr
• Cap rate: 5.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.87%
• DSCR: 0.83
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $85,400

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $305k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-275 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $256k (15.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $268k (12.2% below list).
• It's been on market 385 days — a 12% lower offer ($268k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $256k (15.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-2.4%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#699 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A, cost of living A-, crime B; Watch: amenities F, employment D-, health & safety F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Wimauma Elementary School (math 31% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,882 of 2,144 statewide, top 88%, 543 students, 81% FRL); Shields Middle School (math 29% / reading 27%, grade F, #486 of 571 statewide, top 86%, 1,867 students, 68% FRL); Lennard High School (math 30% / reading 46%, grade F, #328 of 667 statewide, top 50%, 2,404 students, 47% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 32% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Hillsborough average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 858 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 49d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 59% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($98k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 385 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?