44431 Lakewood Dr

Port Vincent, LA 70769

$120,000B

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,320 sqft · Built 1984 · Other · Active · 89 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,446/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax + insurance: −$84
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$514
• Net cashflow: $1,220/mo
• Annual: $14,635/yr
• Cap rate: 18.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 43.56%
• DSCR: 2.94
• 1% rule: 2.04%
• Cash to close: $33,600

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath other listed at $120k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $113k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#142 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Ascension Parish (suburban): math 48% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #7 of 98 in LA (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lakeside Primary School (math 52% / reading 59%, grade C, #89 of 646 statewide, top 14%, 853 students, 58% FRL); Galvez Middle School (math 36% / reading 56%, grade D+, #44 of 218 statewide, top 20%, 804 students, 54% FRL); St. Amant High School (math 63% / reading 67%, grade B, #12 of 265 statewide, top 4%, 2,411 students, 46% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 496 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 579 units permitted in Ascension Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ascension County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 12 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask is 21% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $120k implies a 50% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.5% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 18.5% vs local median 4.3% in Port Vincent — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.