44431 Lakewood Dr · Prairieville, LA 70769

$120,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,320 sqft · Other · 89 Days on market

Built 1984 0.28 ac lot $36/sqft · 72% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Flood Zone X!!! Investor special with tons of potential! This two-story property is already well underway, featuring new construction elements and a solid structure ready for your finishing touches. Situated on a spacious lot, it offers a great layout, covered parking, and plenty of opportunity to add value. Ideal for a flip, rental, or custom project. Estimated resale potential around $400K. Submit HIGHEST & BEST Offer.

Key facts

• Covered parking
• Great layout
• Spacious lot

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION ELEMENTS
• SOLID STRUCTURE
• SPACIOUS LOT
• COVERED PARKING
• GREAT LAYOUT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath other listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $113k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.5% vs local median 4.3% in Prairieville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#70 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Ascension Parish (suburban): math 48% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #7 of 98 in LA (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 496 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 579 units permitted in Ascension Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ascension County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.5% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 12 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask is 21% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $120k implies a 50% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $112,800 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 43.56%
• DSCR: 2.94
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $432,133
• List price: $120,000
• Delta: -72.23%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.47% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 40.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.77×
• Total profit: $59,358
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 47.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.65×
• Total profit: $156,383
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70769

• Rents YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 496
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,446 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$34 /mo · $405/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$514
• Net cashflow: $1,220

Break-even live

Break-even rent $903

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 45%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,288	-5% $1,254	+0% $1,220	+5% $1,186	+10% $1,152
Rent	-10% $1,026	-5% $1,123	+0% $1,220	+5% $1,316	+10% $1,413
Rate	-1.0pp $1,280	-0.5pp $1,250	base $1,220	+0.5pp $1,188	+1.0pp $1,157

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 39 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $120,000 Active 89 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 86 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 85 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $120,000 Active 84 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $130,000 Active 83 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $130,000 Active 81 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $130,000 Active 78 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $130,000 Active 77 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $130,000 Active 76 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $130,000 Active 75 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $130,000 Active 72 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on market $130,000 Active 71 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,900 Active 70 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,900 Active 69 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,900 Active 68 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,900 Active 67 DOM
17. 2026-04-10
    price $149,900 428-char remark

    Show marketing remark (430 chars)

    Flood Zone X!!! Investor special with tons of potential! This two-story property is already well underway, featuring new construction elements and a solid structure ready for your finishing touches. Situated on a spacious lot, it offers a great layout, covered parking, and plenty of opportunity to add value. Ideal for a flip, rental, or custom project. Estimated resale potential around $400K. Submit HIGHEST & BEST Offer.

18. 2026-04-10
    price $149,900 430-char remark

    Show marketing remark (430 chars)

    Flood Zone X!!! Investor special with tons of potential! This two-story property is already well underway, featuring new construction elements and a solid structure ready for your finishing touches. Situated on a spacious lot, it offers a great layout, covered parking, and plenty of opportunity to add value. Ideal for a flip, rental, or custom project. Estimated resale potential around $400K. Submit HIGHEST & BEST Offer.

19. 2026-03-24
    listed $99,000 Active 430-char remark

    Show marketing remark (428 chars)

    Flood Zone X!!! Investor special with tons of potential! This two-story property is already well underway, featuring new construction elements and a solid structure ready for your finishing touches. Situated on a spacious lot, it offers a great layout, covered parking, and plenty of opportunity to add value. Ideal for a flip, rental, or custom project. Estimated resale potential around $400K. Submit HIGHEST & BEST Offer.

20. 2026-03-24
    listed $99,000 Active 428-char remark

    Show marketing remark (428 chars)

    Flood Zone X!!! Investor special with tons of potential! This two-story property is already well underway, featuring new construction elements and a solid structure ready for your finishing touches. Situated on a spacious lot, it offers a great layout, covered parking, and plenty of opportunity to add value. Ideal for a flip, rental, or custom project. Estimated resale potential around $400K. Submit HIGHEST & BEST Offer.

21. 2025-08-22
    soldstatus $80,000
22. 2023-01-24
    soldstatus $45,000
23. 2022-12-12
    soldstatus $324,625
24. 2014-08-01
    soldstatus $197,900
25. 2014-01-15
    soldstatus
26. 2013-10-02
    listed $86,500
27. 2013-10-02
    listed $86,500
28. 2008-11-20
    soldstatus $109,900
29. 2008-08-21
    soldstatus
30. 2008-08-12
    soldstatus
31. 2008-04-18
    listed $114,900
32. 2008-04-18
    listed $114,900
33. 2006-01-06
    listed $117,600
34. 2006-01-06
    listed $117,600
35. 2005-05-05
    listed $124,900
36. 2005-05-05
    listed $124,900
37. 2004-07-28
    listed $149,900
38. 2004-07-28
    listed $149,900
39. 2003-02-10
    soldstatus $139,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $405 · $34/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $660 · $55/mo
• Expected delta: +$255/yr (+$21/mo · 62.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,357
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$405
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,349
• − Management: −$2,349
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $13,442
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,226
• After-tax cash flow: $11,409/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ascension Parish
• NCES district ID: 2200090
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -31.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -25.00%
• Median HH income: $68,423
• Composite: 47.0/100
• National rank: #2347
• State rank: #7 of 98 in LA

Livability — Prairieville

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #70
• US rank: #8507

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Ascension Parish · 98,362 people
• City population: 49,278
• Metro: Baton Rouge, LA
• Population (ZIP): 49,278
• Household income: $109,404
• Rent vs Own: 12.3% rent · 87.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 91.0

Population outlook (Ascension County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 145,480 people
• By 2030: 158,329 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 183,741 · +26.3%
• By 2050: 207,615 · +42.7%
• By 2075: 260,244 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 289,576 · +99.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 15% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 16% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ascension

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+34.0) · D 32.2% · R 66.1% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.7pp toward D · 2008: -35.7pp · 2024: -34.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+34.0 2020: R+32.5 2016: R+36.0 2012: R+34.3 2008: R+35.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -111.56%
• Current HPI: 144.2267
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.47%
• Metro: Baton Rouge, LA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+7.8% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $149,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $149,900 GBRMLS
• 2026-03-24 Listed $99,000 GBRMLS
• 2026-03-24 Listed $99,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2025-08-22 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 2023-01-24 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 2022-12-12 Sold (Public Records) $324,625 Public Records
• 2014-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $197,900 Public Records
• 2014-01-15 Sold (MLS) — GBRMLS
• 2013-10-02 Listed $86,500 AcadianaMLS
• 2013-10-02 Listed $86,500 GBRMLS
• 2008-11-20 Sold (Public Records) $109,900 Public Records
• 2008-08-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2008-08-12 Sold (MLS) — GBRMLS
• 2008-04-18 Listed $114,900 GBRMLS
• 2008-04-18 Listed $114,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2006-01-06 Listed $117,600 AcadianaMLS
• 2006-01-06 Listed $117,600 GBRMLS
• 2005-05-05 Listed $124,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2005-05-05 Listed $124,900 GBRMLS
• 2004-07-28 Listed $149,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2004-07-28 Listed $149,900 GBRMLS
• 2003-02-10 Sold (Public Records) $139,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-10.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $405 · -1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.