21 Willow Bend Dr

Hiram, GA 30141

$300,700D

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,700 sqft · Built 1994 · SingleFamily · Active · 49 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,161/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,577
• Tax + insurance: −$386
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$454
• Net cashflow: $-256/mo
• Annual: $-3,066/yr
• Cap rate: 5.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.64%
• DSCR: 0.84
• 1% rule: 0.72%
• Cash to close: $84,196

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $301k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-256 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $256k (15.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $216k (28.1% below list).
• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($292k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $216k (28.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#152 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D+, crime F, commute F.
• Paulding County (suburban): math 39% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #33 of 174 in GA (top 19%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sam D. Panter Elementary School (math 38% / reading 37%, grade F, #474 of 1,228 statewide, top 39%, 511 students, 63% FRL); J. A. Dobbins Middle School (math 28% / reading 37%, grade F, #221 of 470 statewide, top 48%, 532 students, 61% FRL); Hiram High School (math 19% / reading 17%, grade F, #258 of 424 statewide, top 62%, 1,468 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools average 60% FRL vs 33% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 240 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,458 units permitted in Paulding County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Paulding County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 25% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.8% in Hiram — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.