2835 State Route 8

Speculator, NY 12164

$229,000D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,212 sqft · Built 1928 · SingleFamily · Pending · 16 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,374/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,201
• Tax + insurance: −$211
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$288
• Net cashflow: $-327/mo
• Annual: $-3,918/yr
• Cap rate: 4.58%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.11%
• DSCR: 0.73
• 1% rule: 0.60%
• Cash to close: $64,120

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $229k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-327 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $171k (25.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $137k (40.0% below list).
• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($226k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $137k (40.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#525 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living B+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D-, amenities F.
• Lake Pleasant Central School District (rural): math 40% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #546 of 755 in NY (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lake Pleasant School (math 44% / reading 74%, grade B-, #745 of 2,108 statewide, top 39%, 73 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 21% district-wide (21 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 60% at this address vs 45% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Lake Pleasant Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: built in 1928 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 2 active listings in the ZIP; 55 units permitted in Hamilton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hamilton County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $38k; list at $229k implies a 503% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1928 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.