2835 State Route 8 · Speculator, NY 12164

$229,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,212 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1928 0.28 ac lot $189/sqft · 26% below area Est $309k · 26% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0
• 1% rule +1.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Act quickly to secure this charming 3 season Adirondack retreat with shared deeded access to Lake Pleasant, located just moments from the water in the heart of Speculator . This inviting property is the perfect landing pad for weekend getaways, and outdoor enthusiasts looking to enjoy lake life and mountain living. Inside, the home offers a warm and welcoming layout featuring a kitchen, a dining area, and a spacious living room centered around a majestic stone hearth. The spaces flow naturally together, creating a comfortable setting for gathering and relaxing. Enter through a charming mudroom with knotty pine walls, ideal for Adirondack living. The main floor also includes a bedroom and fu

Key facts

• Firepit
• Seasonal lake access
• Charming mudroom

Tags

• MAJESTIC STONE HEARTH
• WOOD BURNING STOVE
• CHARMING MUDROOM
• WOODED YARD
• FIREPIT
• SEASONAL LAKE ACCESS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking for 5 vehicles
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence
• Construction: Wood siding
• Exterior features: Shingle/asphalt roof; Shed(s); Wooded lot with views; Deeded shared water access to Lake Pleasant; Waterfront on Lake Pleasant

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: First-floor bedroom; Second-floor bedroom; Second-floor bedroom
• Flooring: Hardwood
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms — one on the first floor and one on the second floor
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Wood heating
• Interior features: Paddle fan; Two wood-burning fireplaces (one with insert) — fireplaces in family room and living room; Total of 9 rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $229k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-327 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $171k (25.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $137k (40.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $137k (40.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#525 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living B+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D-, amenities F.
• Lake Pleasant Central School District (rural): math 40% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #546 of 755 in NY (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lake Pleasant School (math 44% / reading 74%, grade B-, #745 of 2,108 statewide, top 39%, 73 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 21% district-wide (21 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 60% at this address vs 45% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Lake Pleasant Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 2 active listings in the ZIP; 55 units permitted in Hamilton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Hamilton County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($226k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $38k; list at $229k implies a 503% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1928 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $137,353 (40.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1928 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.60% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.58%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.11%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 13.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $308,970
• List price: $229,000
• Delta: -25.88%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
107 Charlie Brown Ln	0.46mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,100 (-9%)	17mo	$260,000	$236	44
123 Elm Lake Rd	0.70mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,349 (+11%)	6mo	$262,500	$195	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $6,704
• Equity at exit: $102,968

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.83×
• Total profit: $52,934
• Equity at exit: $158,686

Cash invested: $64,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12164

• Active inventory: 2
• Price-to-rent: 13.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,374 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,201
• Tax from tax record: −$115 /mo · $1,384/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$288
• Net cashflow: $-327

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,787

Max offer price $171,315

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,250
• Closing costs: $6,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-04
   listed $229,000 Active 1512-char remark
2. 2011-11-18
   soldstatus $38,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,384 · $115/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,627 · $219/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,243/yr (+$104/mo · 89.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,482
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,828
• − Property taxes: −$1,384
• − Insurance: −$1,145
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,319
• − Management: −$1,319
• − Depreciation: −$6,662
• Taxable loss: −$8,173
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,962
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,957/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake Pleasant Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3616530
• Math proficiency: 40% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,885
• Composite: 41.31/100
• National rank: #7364
• State rank: #546 of 755 in NY

Livability — Speculator

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #525
• US rank: #9282

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime D- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Speculator, NY
• Population (ZIP): 520

Population outlook (Hamilton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,374 people
• By 2030: 4,157 · -5.0%
• By 2040: 3,641 · -16.8%
• By 2050: 3,238 · -26.0%
• By 2075: 2,644 · -39.6%
• By 2100: 2,017 · -53.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Hispanic / Latino 2% Two or more races 2% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8% Slovak 7% Romanian 7%
• Foreign-born: 2% · South Korea
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Chinese 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hamilton

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 35.3% · R 64.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.6pp toward R · 2008: -26.9pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+30.3 2016: R+38.8 2012: R+26.2 2008: R+26.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+502.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Pending — Global MLS
• 2026-05-04 Listed $229,000 Global MLS
• 2011-11-18 Sold (Public Records) $38,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,384 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.