521 Shaggy Hickory Trl

Chattahoochee Hills, GA 30268

$312,500D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Built 2002 · SingleFamily · Active · 68 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,885/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,639
• Tax + insurance: −$421
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$396
• Net cashflow: $-570/mo
• Annual: $-6,842/yr
• Cap rate: 4.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.82%
• DSCR: 0.65
• 1% rule: 0.60%
• Cash to close: $87,500

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $312k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-570 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $212k (32.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (39.7% below list).
• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($294k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $189k (39.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#338 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Fulton County (suburban): math 49% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #12 of 174 in GA (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Amana Academy School (math 47% / reading 52%, grade D, #264 of 1,228 statewide, top 23%, 731 students, 30% FRL, charter); Bear Creek Middle School (math 17% / reading 26%, grade F, #339 of 470 statewide, top 72%, 1,108 students, 100% FRL); Creekside High School (math 30% / reading 24%, grade F, #160 of 424 statewide, top 38%, 1,768 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 77% FRL vs 41% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 33% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Fulton County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 229 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 11,565 units permitted in Fulton County in 2024 (8,159 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fulton County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $183k; list at $312k implies a 71% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 1.4% in Chattahoochee Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.