521 Shaggy Hickory Trl · Chattahoochee Hills, GA 30268

$312,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 68 Days on market

Built 2002 0.53 ac lot $233/sqft · 58% above area Est $395k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.2/30.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

WELCOME HOME TO THIS LARGE (2,688 SF) FULLY RENOVATED 2 STORIES HOME WITH 5 BEDS, 3 FULL BATHS, LIVING ROOM & SPACIOUS FAMILY ROOM ON LOWER LEVEL! FREE MAINTENANCE VINYL SIDING! WATERPROOF LVP FLOORING THROUGHOUT MAIN & LOWER LEVELS! NEW CARPETS ON ALL BEDROOMS! TILE BATHS! NEW VANITY ON LOWER LEVEL BATH! MASTER BATH W/ DOUBLE SINKS, GRANITE TOP, SEPARATE SHOWER & GARDEN TUB! NEW TOILETS! KITCHEN W/ GRANITE COUNTERTOPS & NEW SS WHIRLPOOL APPLIANCES! NEW DUAL HVAC SYSTEMS! DECK! LARGE COVERED FRONT PORCH! FRESHLY PAINTED INTERIOR WALLS, CEILINGS, TRIM & DOORS! New Lighting, Fixtures & Hardware Package! CUL-DE-SAC! LARGE UNFINISHED STORAGE ROOM IN LOWER LEV

Key facts

• Fully renovated
• New vanity
• Granite countertops

Tags

• FULLY RENOVATED
• FREE MAINTENANCE VINYL SIDING
• WATERPROOF LVP FLOORING
• NEW VANITY
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• NEW DUAL HVAC SYSTEMS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $312k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-570 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $212k (32.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (39.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $189k (39.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 1.4% in Chattahoochee Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#338 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Fulton County (suburban): math 49% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #12 of 174 in GA (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Amana Academy School (math 47% / reading 52%, grade D, #264 of 1,228 statewide, top 23%, 731 students, 30% FRL, charter); Bear Creek Middle School (math 17% / reading 26%, grade F, #339 of 470 statewide, top 72%, 1,108 students, 100% FRL); Creekside High School (math 30% / reading 24%, grade F, #160 of 424 statewide, top 38%, 1,768 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 77% FRL vs 41% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 33% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Fulton County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 227 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 11,565 units permitted in Fulton County in 2024 (8,159 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fulton County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($294k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $183k; list at $312k implies a 71% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $188,518 (39.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.60% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.82%
• DSCR: 0.65
• GRM: 13.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $395,206
• List price: $312,500
• Delta: -20.93%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
508 Shaggy Hickory Trl	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,404 (+4%)	2mo	$259,000	$184	88
812 Carlton Pointe Pl	0.35mi	3/2.5	1,282 (-5%)	5mo	$210,000	$164	70
649 Carlton Pointe Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,404 (+4%)	4mo	$208,000	$148	68
619 Carlton Rd	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,382 (+3%)	20mo	$252,000	$182	63
631 Carlton Pointe Dr	0.42mi	3/2.5	1,520 (+13%)	2mo	$239,900	$158	55
590 Carlton Rd	0.60mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,454 (+8%)	20mo	$290,000	$199	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-86,984
• Equity at exit: $46,595

10-year hold

• IRR: -31.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.40×
• Total profit: $-122,636
• Equity at exit: $27,019

Cash invested: $87,500 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30268

• Home prices YoY: -22.1%
• Active inventory: 227
• Price-to-rent: 13.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,885 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,639
• Tax from tax record: −$290 /mo · $3,485/yr
• Insurance: −$130
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$396
• Net cashflow: $-570

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,607

Max offer price $211,784

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-393	-5% $-482	+0% $-570	+5% $-659	+10% $-747
Rent	-10% $-719	-5% $-645	+0% $-570	+5% $-496	+10% $-421
Rate	-1.0pp $-413	-0.5pp $-491	base $-570	+0.5pp $-651	+1.0pp $-733

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,125
• Closing costs: $9,375
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
545 Carlton Pointe Dr Palmetto, GA	2.0	2.0	1073	$1,375	$1.28	26d	1	0.22mi
115 Anna Ave Palmetto, GA	3.0	2.5	1716	$1,910	$1.11	46d	1	0.95mi
495 Anna Ave Palmetto, GA	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,255	$1.41	0d	1	1.14mi
513 Toombs St Unit 5 Palmetto, GA	2.0	1.5	1200	$1,350	$1.12	26d	1	1.25mi
660 Magnolia Cir Palmetto, GA	3.0	2.5	1386	$1,965	$1.42	46d	1	1.32mi
640 Main St Palmetto, GA	2.0	1.0	1066	$1,875	$1.76	46d	1	1.32mi
635 Magnolia Cir Palmetto, GA	3.0	2.5	1386	$1,690	$1.22	46d	1	1.37mi
553 Magnolia Cir Palmetto, GA	3.0	2.5	1386	$1,845	$1.33	24d	1	1.43mi
552 Magnolia Cir Palmetto, GA	3.0	2.5	1386	$1,690	$1.22	26d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $312,500 Active 68 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $312,500 Active 65 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $312,500 Active 64 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $312,500 Active 63 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $312,500 Active 62 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $312,500 Active 60 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $312,500 Active 56 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $312,500 Active 55 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $312,500 Active 54 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $312,500 Active 51 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $312,500 Active 50 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $312,500 Active 48 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $312,500 Active 47 DOM
14. 2026-04-08
    historical
15. 2026-03-16
    price $317,400
16. 2025-12-31
    historical
17. 2025-11-18
    price $319,900
18. 2025-10-27
    price $322,500
19. 2025-10-01
    listed $312,500 New
20. 2025-10-01
    listed $319,900 New
21. 2025-10-01
    listed $324,900 New
22. 2024-03-26
    soldstatus $183,000
23. 2024-03-11
    listed $185,000 Active
24. 2010-07-22
    historical
25. 2010-07-16
    soldstatus $42,000 Sold
26. 2010-06-23
    status Pending
27. 2010-06-23
    listed $55,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,485 · $290/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,485 · $290/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,622
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,505
• − Property taxes: −$3,485
• − Insurance: −$1,562
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,810
• − Management: −$1,810
• − Depreciation: −$9,091
• Taxable loss: −$12,641
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,034
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,808/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fulton County
• NCES district ID: 1302280
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $68,035
• Composite: 45.33/100
• National rank: #2640
• State rank: #12 of 174 in GA

Livability — Chattahoochee Hills

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #338
• US rank: #17608

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Chattahoochee Hills, GA
• County: Fulton County · 1,094,430 people
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 10,874
• Household income: $91,349
• Rent vs Own: 27.1% rent · 72.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 206.0

Population outlook (Fulton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,203,707 people
• By 2030: 1,299,706 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 1,488,256 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 1,664,580 · +38.3%
• By 2075: 2,036,072 · +69.2%
• By 2100: 2,222,402 · +84.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 42% White 36% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1% Serbian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 14% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fulton

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+44.9) · D 71.9% · R 27.0% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.8pp toward D · 2008: 35.0pp · 2024: 44.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+44.9 2020: D+46.4 2016: D+42.1 2012: D+29.6 2008: D+35.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -73.29%
• Current HPI: 258.4993
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+477.1% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $317,400 GAMLS
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2025-11-18 Price Changed $319,900 GAMLS
• 2025-10-27 Price Changed $322,500 GAMLS
• 2025-10-01 Listed $324,900 GAMLS
• 2025-10-01 Listed $319,900 GAMLS
• 2025-10-01 Listed $312,500 GAMLS
• 2024-03-26 Sold (Public Records) $183,000 Public Records
• 2024-03-11 Listed $185,000 FMLS
• 2010-07-22 Listing Removed — FMLS
• 2010-07-16 Sold (MLS) $42,000 FMLS
• 2010-06-23 Pending — FMLS
• 2010-06-23 Listed $55,000 FMLS

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,485 · +348.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.