2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,000 sqft ·
Built 1950
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 43 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,032/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$656
Tax + insurance
−$172
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$217
Net cashflow
$-12/mo
Annual
$-139/yr
Cap rate
6.18%
Cash-on-cash
-0.40%
DSCR
0.98
1% rule
0.83%
Cash to close
$35,000
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-12 ($-139/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $123k (1.6% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $103k (17.4% below list).
It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $103k (17.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-2.8%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 63/100 on livability (#232 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
Madill (town): math 20% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #162 of 270 in OK (top 60%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Madill Es (math 28% / reading 24%, grade F, #342 of 845 statewide, top 41%, 841 students, 0% FRL); Madill Ms (math 14% / reading 20%, grade F, #193 of 345 statewide, top 60%, 373 students, 0% FRL); Madill Hs (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #314 of 447 statewide, top 72%, 546 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 61% district-wide (61 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 105 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 42 units permitted in Marshall County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Marshall County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.0% in Madill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
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