203 N Washington Ave

Centereach, NY 11720

$399,900B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,768 sqft · Built 1939 · SingleFamily · Pending · 21 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,896/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,097
• Tax + insurance: −$827
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,028
• Net cashflow: $943/mo
• Annual: $11,319/yr
• Cap rate: 9.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.11%
• DSCR: 1.45
• 1% rule: 1.22%
• Cash to close: $111,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $400k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $943 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $400k).
• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($394k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $394k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#362 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Middle Country Central School District (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #217 of 590 in NY (top 37%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Oxhead Road School (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,444 of 2,108 statewide, top 71%, 371 students, 38% FRL); Dawnwood Middle School (math 37% / reading 46%, grade F, #394 of 729 statewide, top 55%, 1,074 students, 37% FRL); Centereach High School (math 84% / reading 77%, grade A, #506 of 1,100 statewide, top 46%, 1,475 students, 35% FRL) — zoned schools average 37% FRL vs 22% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1939 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 148 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $110k; list at $400k implies a 264% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 3.8% in Centereach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($135k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1939 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.