203 N Washington Ave · Centereach, NY 11720

$399,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,768 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 21 Days on market

Built 1939 2.50 ac lot $226/sqft · 44% below area Est $716k · 44% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.5/10.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Calling all investors, builders, and visionaries — opportunities like this don't come around often. Two expansive lots, each approximately 2.5 acres, are available together for a combined footprint of roughly 5 acres. The condemned structure on site has already done the thinking for you — bring your plans and build something extraordinary. Financing limited to cash, hard money, or private money. Prospective buyers must execute a Hold Harmless Addendum before scheduling a site visit. The canvas is ready. What will you build? See Attached Current Survey.

Key facts

• Two expansive lots
• 2.5 acre lot
• Built 1939

Tags

• TWO EXPANSIVE LOTS
• APPROXIMATELY 2.5 ACRES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Cesspool sewer; Cable available; Electricity available
• Home design: Single family residence; Living area reported from public records
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Level lot; Additional parcel(s) included; Not waterfront

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Other heating; No central air
• Interior features: Other interior features; Basement with walk-out access; 7 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $400k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $943 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $400k).
• Recommended offer: $394k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 3.8% in Centereach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#362 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Middle Country Central School District (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #217 of 590 in NY (top 37%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Oxhead Road School (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,444 of 2,108 statewide, top 71%, 371 students, 38% FRL); Dawnwood Middle School (math 37% / reading 46%, grade F, #394 of 729 statewide, top 55%, 1,074 students, 37% FRL); Centereach High School (math 84% / reading 77%, grade A, #506 of 1,100 statewide, top 46%, 1,475 students, 35% FRL) — zoned schools average 37% FRL vs 22% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 148 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($135k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($394k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $110k; list at $400k implies a 264% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1939 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $393,901 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1939 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.11%
• DSCR: 1.45
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $716,118
• List price: $399,900
• Delta: -44.16%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11 St. James St	0.24mi	3/2.5	1,750 (-1%)	8mo	$710,000	$406	78
70 Forest Rd	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,891 (+7%)	5mo	$755,000	$399	65
9 Irene Ct	0.29mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,582 (-10%)	10mo	$540,000	$341	53
29 Cedar St	0.51mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,939 (+10%)	5mo	$695,000	$358	49
22 Morning Dr	0.65mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,700 (-4%)	12mo	$650,000	$382	48
150 Hammond Ln	0.38mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,020 (+14%)	10mo	$750,000	$371	43
44 Picket Ln	0.71mi	3/1.5	1,900 (+8%)	12mo	$660,000	$347	42
71 Hunter Ln	0.71mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,608 (-9%)	1mo	$686,000	$427	42
2 Loretta Ct	0.68mi	3/3.0	1,850 (+5%)	19mo	$599,900	$324	41
198 Tree Rd	0.55mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,890 (+7%)	21mo	$655,000	$347	41
5 Sycamore St	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,510 (-15%)	6mo	$555,000	$368	36
171 Stanley Dr	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,512 (-14%)	4mo	$540,000	$357	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-4,551
• Equity at exit: $59,626

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.66×
• Total profit: $74,098
• Equity at exit: $34,576

Cash invested: $111,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11720

• Active inventory: 148
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,896 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,097
• Tax from tax record: −$661 /mo · $7,930/yr
• Insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,028
• Net cashflow: $943

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,702

Max offer price $399,900

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,170	-5% $1,056	+0% $943	+5% $830	+10% $717
Rent	-10% $556	-5% $750	+0% $943	+5% $1,137	+10% $1,330
Rate	-1.0pp $1,145	-0.5pp $1,045	base $943	+0.5pp $840	+1.0pp $734

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,975
• Closing costs: $11,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
63 Sunflower Ridge Rd South Setauket, NY	4.0	2.5	2479	$5,300	$2.14	26d	1	0.42mi
103 Sunflower Ridge Rd South Setauket, NY	3.0	4.0	2274	$5,000	$2.20	0d	1	0.53mi
14 Green Pl South Setauket, NY	4.0	2.5	2550	$5,200	$2.04	0d	1	0.84mi
21 Fairway Dr South Setauket, NY	4.0	2.5	2388	$5,000	$2.09	46d	1	0.87mi
61 Gould Rd Centereach, NY	4.0	3.0	2592	$3,850	$1.49	26d	1	0.89mi
64 Neal Path Centereach, NY	1.0–3.0	2.0	1252	$4,270	$3.41	0d	1	1.16mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $399,900 Pending 21 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $399,900 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $399,900 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $399,900 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $399,900 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $399,900 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-05-15
   listed $399,900 Active 571-char remark
8. 1992-04-01
   soldstatus $110,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $7,930 · $661/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,930 · $661/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $58,752
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,401
• − Property taxes: −$7,930
• − Insurance: −$2,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,700
• − Management: −$4,700
• − Depreciation: −$11,633
• Taxable income: $5,388
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,293
• After-tax cash flow: $10,026/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Middle Country Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3619200
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $86,140
• Composite: 52.89/100
• National rank: #1532
• State rank: #217 of 590 in NY

Livability — Centereach

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #362
• US rank: #6174

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Centereach, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 29,292
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 29,292
• Household income: $134,898
• Rent vs Own: 12.6% rent · 87.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 436.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 15% Asian 7% Two or more races 7% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -633.07%
• Current HPI: 347.7369
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+263.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-15 Listed $399,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1992-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $110,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,930 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.