51 Winesap Ct

Apple Mountain Lake, VA 22642

$395,900D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,824 sqft · Built 1982 · SingleFamily · Active · 38 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,250/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,076
• Tax + insurance: −$320
• HOA: −$53
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$472
• Net cashflow: $-672/mo
• Annual: $-8,060/yr
• Cap rate: 4.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.27%
• DSCR: 0.68
• 1% rule: 0.57%
• Cash to close: $110,852

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $396k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-672 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $277k (30.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (43.2% below list).
• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($384k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $225k (43.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $42k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $40k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#404 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Warren County Public School District (town): math 49% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #70 of 131 in VA (top 53%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Hilda J. Barbour Elementary (math 57% / reading 57%, grade C+, #597 of 1,108 statewide, top 57%, 469 students, 66% FRL); Warren County High (math 82% / reading 82%, grade A, #40 of 319 statewide, top 15%, 833 students, 65% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 34% district-wide (31 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 70% at this address vs 56% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Warren County Public School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 61 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 170 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Warren County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 11 sale attempts since 30y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $230k; list at $396k implies a 72% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$68k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 43% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.