51 Winesap Ct · Apple Mountain Lake, VA 22642

$395,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,824 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1982 1.04 ac lot $217/sqft · 6% below area Est $419k · 6% under $53/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.5/30.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0
• 1% rule +0.7/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 51 Winesap Ct in Linden, VA! Nestled in the desirable Apple Mountain Lake community, this home offers the perfect blend of convenience and peaceful mountain living. Located just about a mile from the I‑66 exit, you’ll enjoy easy access to commuter routes, shopping, dining, and everyday amenities. Step outside and discover a beautiful backyard retreat—private, tranquil, and ideal for relaxing, entertaining, or enjoying nature. Whether you're unwinding after a long day or hosting friends and family, this serene outdoor space and massive deck are true highlights of the property. Residents of Apple Mountain Lake enjoy access to a variety of community amenities, adding to

Key facts

• Community amenities
• Massive deck
• 1.04 acre lot

Tags

• APPLE MOUNTAIN LAKE COMMUNITY
• BEAUTIFUL BACKYARD RETREAT
• MASSIVE DECK
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Ownership is fee simple; Accessibility features include 32"+ wide doors
• HOA & community: HOA fee $53 monthly

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Electric service available; Electric heating fuel and electric hot water; Central A/C powered by electricity; Community water; Septic system sized to number of bedrooms; Municipal trash not provided
• Home design: Detached property; Above-grade finished area 912; Total below-grade area 912
• Construction: Vinyl siding exterior; Block foundation; Architectural shingle roof
• Exterior features: Detached structure; No tidal water

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Hardwood flooring; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump(s) heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Dry wall walls and ceilings; Has 1 fireplace; Walkout level basement; Finished lower level (912 below-grade finished area)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $396k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-672 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $277k (30.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (43.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $225k (43.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#404 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Warren County Public School District (town): math 49% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #70 of 131 in VA (top 53%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Hilda J. Barbour Elementary (math 57% / reading 57%, grade C+, #597 of 1,108 statewide, top 57%, 469 students, 66% FRL); Warren County High (math 82% / reading 82%, grade A, #40 of 319 statewide, top 15%, 833 students, 65% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 34% district-wide (31 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 70% at this address vs 56% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Warren County Public School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 61 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 170 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $42k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $40k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Warren County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$68k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($384k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 11 sale attempts since 30y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $230k; list at $396k implies a 72% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $225,000 (43.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 43% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.57% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.27%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 14.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $419,350
• List price: $395,900
• Delta: -5.59%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
344 King David Dr	0.20mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,838 (+1%)	9mo	$460,000	$250	72
512 Oregon Hollow Rd	0.24mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,782 (-2%)	19mo	$385,000	$216	64
499 Rome Beauty Dr	0.48mi	2/2.0	1,872 (+3%)	19mo	$375,000	$200	58
32 Granny Smith Rd	0.43mi	3/3.5 (+1)	1,919 (+5%)	13mo	$390,000	$203	49
804 Oregon Hollow Rd	0.46mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,924 (+6%)	20mo	$412,000	$214	48
429 Black Twig Rd	0.59mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,882 (+3%)	23mo	$359,000	$191	43
31 Camp David Ct	0.71mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,850 (+1%)	22mo	$690,000	$373	38
532 Apple Orchard Dr	0.67mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,652 (-9%)	14mo	$400,000	$242	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.56×
• Total profit: $172,694
• Equity at exit: $356,658

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.89×
• Total profit: $541,916
• Equity at exit: $769,147

Cash invested: $110,852 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22642

• Home prices YoY: 10.6%
• Active inventory: 61
• Price-to-rent: 14.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,250 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,076
• Tax from tax record: −$155 /mo · $1,861/yr
• Insurance: −$165
• HOA: −$53
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$472
• Net cashflow: $-672

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,100

Max offer price $277,241

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-448	-5% $-560	+0% $-672	+5% $-784	+10% $-896
Rent	-10% $-849	-5% $-761	+0% $-672	+5% $-583	+10% $-494
Rate	-1.0pp $-472	-0.5pp $-571	base $-672	+0.5pp $-774	+1.0pp $-879

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $98,975
• Closing costs: $11,877
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
214 Bridle Path Rd Front Royal, VA	3.0	2.0	1734	$2,250	$1.30	0d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $53 · $636/yr

Listing history 43 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $395,900 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $395,900 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $395,900 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $395,900 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $395,900 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $395,900 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $404,900 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $404,900 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $404,900 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $404,900 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $404,900 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $404,900 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $404,900 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $404,900 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-05-14
    listed $404,900 Active 905-char remark
16. 2019-12-23
    soldstatus $230,000
17. 2017-10-10
    status Contract
18. 2017-10-09
    historical Temporarily Off-Market
19. 2017-09-24
    price
20. 2017-09-16
    price
21. 2017-08-12
    listed Active
22. 2017-08-11
    listed $229,900 Active
23. 2017-02-17
    historical
24. 2017-02-17
    historical Withdrawn
25. 2016-11-15
    price
26. 2016-10-26
    listed Active
27. 2016-10-26
    listed $229,900
28. 2016-07-29
    historical
29. 2016-07-18
    soldstatus $110,000
30. 2016-07-18
    soldstatus $110,000 Sold
31. 2016-06-15
    status Contract
32. 2016-06-10
    price $135,000
33. 2016-06-08
    status Active
34. 2016-05-31
    status Contract
35. 2016-04-18
    listed $169,900 Active
36. 2016-04-18
    listed $135,000
37. 2016-02-22
    historical Expired
38. 2016-02-22
    historical
39. 2015-10-05
    price
40. 2015-08-25
    listed Active
41. 2015-08-25
    listed $185,900
42. 1996-07-08
    historical
43. 1996-03-13
    listed

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,861 · $155/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,246 · $271/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,385/yr (+$115/mo · 74.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,177
• − Property taxes: −$1,861
• − Insurance: −$1,980
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,160
• − Management: −$2,160
• − HOA: −$636
• − Depreciation: −$11,517
• Taxable loss: −$15,490
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,718
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,343/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warren County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103870
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $61,504
• Composite: 49.22/100
• National rank: #2039
• State rank: #70 of 131 in VA

Livability — Apple Mountain Lake

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #404
• US rank: #16923

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Apple Mountain Lake, VA
• Population (ZIP): 4,130

Population outlook (Warren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 42,045 people
• By 2030: 43,257 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 45,088 · +7.2%
• By 2050: 45,567 · +8.4%
• By 2075: 46,081 · +9.6%
• By 2100: 42,093 · +0.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 9% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 7% Italian 6% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Warren

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.6% · R 68.3% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+35.3 2016: R+37.1 2012: R+20.5 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 41.77%
• Current HPI: 437.0062
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+113.0% since first listed

30 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Price Changed $395,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-14 Listed $404,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-12-23 Sold (Public Records) $230,000 Public Records
• 2017-10-10 Pending — MRIS
• 2017-10-09 Delisted — MRIS
• 2017-09-24 Price Changed — MRIS
• 2017-09-16 Price Changed — MRIS
• 2017-08-12 Listed — MRIS
• 2017-08-11 Listed $229,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2017-02-17 Delisted — MRIS
• 2017-02-17 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2016-11-15 Price Changed — MRIS
• 2016-10-26 Listed — MRIS
• 2016-10-26 Listed $229,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2016-07-29 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2016-07-18 Sold (MLS) $110,000 MRIS
• 2016-07-18 Sold (MLS) $110,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2016-06-15 Pending — MRIS
• 2016-06-10 Price Changed $135,000 MRIS
• 2016-06-08 Relisted — MRIS
• 2016-05-31 Pending — MRIS
• 2016-04-18 Listed $169,900 MRIS
• 2016-04-18 Listed $135,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2016-02-22 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2016-02-22 Delisted — MRIS
• 2015-10-05 Price Changed — MRIS
• 2015-08-25 Listed — MRIS
• 2015-08-25 Listed $185,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 1996-07-08 Delisted — MRIS
• 1996-03-13 Listed — MRIS

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,861 · +18.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.