994 Ridge Rd

Lewiston, NY 14092

$189,900C-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 840 sqft · Built 1930 · SingleFamily · Pending · 25 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,608/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax + insurance: −$288
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$338
• Net cashflow: $-14/mo
• Annual: $-167/yr
• Cap rate: 6.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.31%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $53,172

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-14 ($-167/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $187k (1.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $161k (15.3% below list).
• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($187k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $161k (15.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#196 in NY, #3,020 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: amenities D+, commute F.
• Lewiston-Porter Central School District (rural): math 78% / reading 85% proficiency, ranked #56 of 590 in NY (top 10%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 81 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $145k; 31% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 2.1% in Lewiston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.