994 Ridge Rd · Lewiston, NY 14092

$189,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 840 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 25 Days on market

Built 1930 1.40 ac lot $226/sqft · 41% below area Est $320k · 41% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.9/30.0
• Schools +7.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Nestled on 1.4 scenic acres in the Town of Lewiston, this property is packed with potential for the right buyer! This 2 bedroom, 1 bath home offers 840 Sqft of living space along with a full basement and full unfinished attic, providing plenty of storage and future possibilities. While the home is in need of cosmetic updates, the value here shines through with the expansive lot and incredible outbuildings. The enormous pole barn with concrete floor is a rare find and ideal for mechanics, hobbyists, small business owners, workshop space, or storing recreational vehicles and equipment. Additional features include a detached 1-car garage, storage shed, and hardwood floors under carpet in bedro

Key facts

• Expansive lot
• Enormous pole barn
• Full basement

Tags

• FULL BASEMENT
• FULL UNFINISHED ATTIC
• EXPANSIVE LOT
• ENORMOUS POLE BARN
• DETACHED GARAGE
• STORAGE SHED

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with garage door opener (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water (connected); Sewer connected; Electric with circuit breakers
• Home design: Single-story home; Existing property condition; Rectangular lot; Road frontage on a main thoroughfare
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Asphalt shingle roof; Poured foundation; Built (existing)
• Exterior features: Enclosed porch; Porch; Blacktop driveway; Barn(s); Outbuilding; Shed(s); Storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Gas range; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen with solid surface counters
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Laminate; Vinyl; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Solid surface counters; See remarks
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-14 ($-167/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $187k (1.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $161k (15.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $161k (15.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 2.1% in Lewiston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#196 in NY, #3,020 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: amenities D+, commute F.
• Lewiston-Porter Central School District (rural): math 78% / reading 85% proficiency, ranked #56 of 590 in NY (top 10%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 80 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($187k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $145k; 31% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $160,789 (15.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.31%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $320,000
• List price: $189,900
• Delta: -40.66%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-31,653
• Equity at exit: $28,315

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-28,678
• Equity at exit: $16,419

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14092

• Home prices YoY: -34.5%
• Active inventory: 80
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,608 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$209 /mo · $2,510/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$338
• Net cashflow: $-14

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,626

Max offer price $187,437

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $94	-5% $40	+0% $-14	+5% $-68	+10% $-121
Rent	-10% $-141	-5% $-77	+0% $-14	+5% $50	+10% $113
Rate	-1.0pp $82	-0.5pp $34	base $-14	+0.5pp $-63	+1.0pp $-113

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
787 Legacy Dr Lewiston, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	915	$2,020	$2.21	2d	1	0.63mi
4880 W Eddy Dr Lewiston, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	914	$1,148	$1.26	2d	1	1.00mi
920 Mohawk St Lewiston, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1077	$1,322	$1.23	2d	1	1.24mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-02
   statusdays on market $189,900 Pending 25 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $189,900 Active 24 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $189,900 Active 23 DOM
4. 2026-05-08
   listed $189,900 Active 984-char remark
5. 2003-11-07
   soldstatus $145,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,510 · $209/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,860 · $238/mo
• Expected delta: +$349/yr (+$29/mo · 13.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,295
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$2,510
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,544
• − Management: −$1,544
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable loss: −$3,414
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$819
• After-tax cash flow: $652/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lewiston-Porter Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3617190
• Math proficiency: 78% ▲ 9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 85% ▲ 18.00%
• Median HH income: $63,903
• Composite: 70.21/100
• National rank: #272
• State rank: #56 of 590 in NY

Livability — Lewiston

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #196
• US rank: #3020

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,318

Population outlook (Niagara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 204,149 people
• By 2030: 197,900 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 182,239 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 165,198 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 129,416 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 96,222 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 7% Native American 1% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 13% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · German/W. Germanic 3% Other Indo-European 1% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Niagara

• 2024 margin: R (+14.9) · D 42.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.9 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+0.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -163.20%
• Current HPI: 310.3154
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+31.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-05-08 Listed $189,900 WNYREIS
• 2003-11-07 Sold (Public Records) $145,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+14.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,510 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.